Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1

Independence Day

Shoygu claims that the Russian offensive was cancelled because of “concern for the civilian population”. Arestovich brings up the figure of 22,000 Russian strikes, only 500 of which were on military targets. Today’s (24 August) strikes on Ukraine were larger than average but far less than what was expected today. This is due to a combination of factors. firstly, there are too many foreigners in Kyiv such as foreign diplomats. On top of this, there are strong AA defenses and because they do not have a lot of missiles to spare. Lastly, the Russians want negotiations and a cease fire, and large civilian casualties would delay any such negotiations. The Russians mainly hit cities close the front lines with conventional artillery and MLRS. 

Losses

The new 3rd Russian army corps was sent into Ukraine with 10,000 men as opposed to the initially planned 15,000.

AFU claims 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far. Arestovich believes that the Russian army (excluding L/DPR and Wagner is at around 45,000 casualties. Arestovich claims Wagner has lost 12-15k men and L/DPR around 25K. The Russian army loses 100-200 men daily. According to Arestovich Ukrainian losses are 30-70 men daily and are at a 1:4 ratio to Russian losses.

Lukashenka

Lukashenka congratulated Ukraine on their independence day and said he hopes for peaceful sky in Ukraine. The Kremlin will not punish this as they are looking for a diplomatic way out of this conflict. Arestovich says that there isn’t and there hasn’t been a land based threat from the Belarusian border since mid April. However, Russian planes and other forces will remain on Belarusian territory.

Military aid

Biden also congratulated Ukraine and gave $2.8 Billion of military aid. Included in this are 6 NASAMS air defense systems which in combination with 2 German IRIS-T will have an impact. The most important thing in this package is the 245,000 155mm artillery rounds. Arestovich says that one shell fired from a western gun is worth five fired by Russian/Soviet guns. In addition to this, drone and anti drone systems are included in the package.

Arestovich thanks the US for this aid and says that Ukraine would not have celebrated this independence day without the help of the US, Britain, the Baltic countries, and especially Poland. Poland has given Ukraine nearly 300 tanks. “Ukraine would not be here if not for Poland”. Ukraine is also grateful to other countries who have provided aid including the Scandinavian countries, Germany (who despite the insults is one of the main suppliers of modern weaponry), France, who has given 1/5 of their howitzers and VAB APCs, Italy, and Turkey. Ukraine would have lost without this aid.

“Crimean platform” summit

The Crimean summit has taken place. France, Germany and Turkey made clear and strong statements, with Turkey recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian territory. Everyone involved stated that a Ukrainian victory includes the liberation of Crimea.

Boris Johnson visited Kyiv today and announced $70 million worth of aid comprised mainly of micro drones which are important for the platoon and company level.

Arestovich reiterates his request for 25 more HIMARS systems which he says will change the course of the war. He believes they are not being supplied because the Americans are overly concerned with following procedures when it comes to maintenance and training. Arestovich says that European weapons are always handed over in good condition with adequate spare parts, while American weapons are sometimes (not always) handed over straight from long term storage and with no spare parts. This explains why European weapons take longer to deliver. However, high end weapons such as HIMARS and m777 are always handed over in good condition and with adequate spare parts.

The next 2-3 months are crucial because they determine if the Ukrainians will be able to acquire real concessions such as the liberation of the Crimea and Donbass before the onset of winter. Arestovich signals his agreement with the open letter of 20 American officials to vastly increase the amount of aid being sent to Ukraine. Ukraine hopes to damage the Russian army before the onset of winter and to avoid positional warfare during the winter. “The fate of Europe depends on 25 HIMARS and 200 howitzer”.

15 people were killed in a strike on a train in the Dnepropetrovsk oblast’ by the Russians. Arestovich says Ukraine will carry out retaliatory strikes tomorrow.