Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: https://twitter.com/Anastasiya1451A

Battlefield overview

In Kharkiv, there is artillery exchange between the two sides, Russians continue shelling of the city but without substantial troop movement.

Next to Dovgenke, there was a failed Russian attack in the direction of Dolina and Bogorodychne. The fighting continues and it’s made difficult by the dense forest landscape. The Russian Federation (RF) is trying to attack Siversk from the south, hoping to force Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to transfer reinforcements to this frontline, yet the situation is being managed by the local Ukrainian command.

Russian sources are claiming to have captured Pesky (for “eight time”!) and to have entered the East suburbs of Bakhmut. While the enemy is indeed slowly approaching Bakhmut from the East, Ukraine denies that Russia entered Pesky or Bakhmut. The future advance is possible but extremely costly to Russia. Yet, the further misinformation campaign by Russia is likely to continue.

In the Kherson and Energodar direction Ukraine has made several strikes on Russian bases on the left (East) side of the river Dnipro: 5-6 strikes on Russian forces as far as Melitopol. More strikes on Russian forces on both of Dnipro are expected. The UAF aim to weaken not just the Russian troops occupying Kherson, which remains a strategic target, but also the Russian forces in the Melitopol.

Zaporizhzhia NPP

Russian troops continue to occupy NPP in Energodar and shell both the Ukrainian city of Nikopol and the ZNPP territory – creating provocations aimed at blaming UAF for the shelling of the NPP. The UAF are not targeting the NPP and have only used a high-precision suicide-drone in the NPP surroundings.

Weapons update

–       Ukraine has already received Slovakian mobile 155mm artillery complex SUZANA.

–       Slovakia is also ready to transfer MiG29s to Ukraine once they receive Western substitute planes.

–       First combat report of a Russian Orlan drone shut down with the British Starstreak MANPADS.

Igor Girkin

Girkin, Colonel of Russian FSB, was detained on the border of temporary occupied Crimea and Kherson. Allegedly, he was finally allowed into Kherson region to join the Russian troops.

Russian Federation begging for ceasefire

“To avoid a defeat, USA must force Zelensky to the negotiation table – this would be the best scenario for the US…” Chief of North American department Ministry of Foreign Affairs, A. Dorchiev (via TASS)

“USA are on the edge of a nuclear war with Moscow and Beijing… Ukraine must be recognised as a de facto NATO member.” H. Kissinger

Feygin considers that while the US and China have already reached an agreement, Russian tries to voice their own wishes via Dorchiev and promote its rhetoric with the “useful idiots” like Kissinger. Arestovych, avoiding offending Mr. Kissinger, commented that he “listened with interest to the opinion of the specialist on US politics”.

Commenting on the attempt of Moscow to force Ukraine into negotiations by pressuring Western allies, (via grain deal and now the ZNPP), Arestovych pointed out that the Kremlin is afraid of a major defeat in Southern Ukraine. Russia is afraid of:

1)    Liberation of Kherson and having Russian soldiers being surrounded and captured en masse.

2)    Major Ukrainian strike on Melitopol that would completely compromise the Russian operations in Kherson, Melitopol, Energodar and Mariupol.

The future of Russian troops

Russian transferred their reserves to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the attempt to prevent Ukrainian counter-offensive and to start their own attack on Ukrainian territories. Yet, due to destroyed command centres and constant logistic problems (destroyed bridges and ammunition depots), inflicted by Ukrainian HIMARS, artillery and aviation, Russian military command has no prospects of success. Furthermore, the recent destruction of a Russian airbase in Saki, temp. occupied Crimea, shows the vulnerability of Russian hold on Crimea.

The two military solution for the current Russian situation are:

1)    finding 60k of fresh, well-trained troops – which is physically impossible. Or

2)    starting a nuclear war – which is a suicide for Russia and the Kremlin-regime, leaving RF without a military solution.

Therefore, Russia is trying to push for a ceasefire and negotiations to avoid a military defeat.

“The ceasefire and negotiations with RF [without restoration of Ukrainian borders] would mean defeat. There is only negotiation on the prisoner exchange between the two sides.” – M. Podoliak, Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine.

Most likely, to reduce military losses, Ukraine is going to continue to systematically destroy Russian logistics and weaken the Russian forces until they lose the attack potential and collapse.

Tourist visas for Russian citizens

Several EU countries are voicing their support in restricting the number and type of visas available for Russian citizens. This refers mostly to tourist visas, as it should remain possible to obtain political asylum, family reunion, medical treatment, etc.

This move is following the declaration of RF as a “country sponsor of terrorism” in a number of Baltic countries and constitutes a security measure to limit Moscow’s influence after a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February.

Ukrainian news

The commander of UAF, General Zaluzhnyj, declared that he is willing to review the categories of Ukrainian citizens that are prohibited to leave Ukraine for the duration of the war. The decision will be made by the military and the Government [the cabinet ministers] and may introduce an exception to the emigration ban for students wishing to study abroad.

Some Russian citizens who are fighting on the Ukrainian side in the UAF are receiving letters from the Immigration Office requesting them to leave the country. Yet, this is mainly due to a lack of coordination (absence of a unified electronic system for UAF and the immigration office). The Ukrainian legislation allows non-citizens to serve in UAF and the possession of Ukrainian Military Identity Card is equated to permanent residency card.

Clarifying the Zelensky’s declaration: people who are supporting Putin must face consequences and be responsible for their actions. This obviously doesn’t include Russian opposition movement, people who are already in EU, and the ones fighting on Ukrainian side against Kremlin.

Anatoly Shariy, a known pro-Russian propagandist, is currently hiding from justice in Spain. In addition to Ukraine’s request for extradition of Shariy [accused of paedophilia in Ukraine], the Lithuanian Justice Department also requested extradition of Shariy to Lithuania due to a money-laundering case against him. Following the extradition request by Lithuanian authorities, Shariy started several vile attacks on Lithuanian state and nation on his YouTube channel.