Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1

Day 169, August 11. Summary of Feygin and Arestovych daily broadcast.

Battlefield overview

Nothing special happening at the fronts. Arestovych says that the enemy is anxiously awaiting further events. Same tactical events in the same places.

On the Kharkhiv direction they are trying to advance near Dementiivka. On the Izyum direction the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back. Unsuccessful attempts to advance on Siversk and Bakhmut. A combination of factors lead to these failures including but not limited to depletion of Russian forces and increase in the density of Ukrainian units. Pisky holds, active use of Ukrainian artillery. Mari’nka holds. Russian attacks on Vuhledar also unsuccessful. Small tactical actions on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

On the Kherson direction, Ukrainians shelled Davydiv Brid and Nova Kakhovka. Continued shelling of targets in Kherson itself. Zaporizhzhia NPP was shelled again today.

Zaporozhzhia NPP

UN security council meeting about this ongoing. Reactors are not burning. The Russians are creating a “picture”. They do not want to damage the NPP or harm their troops. The Russians shell Nikopol’ in an attempt to provoke the Ukrainians. A demilitarised zone has been suggested. This is comparable to the situation when a grain corridor was created. In some ways, Russia is achieving their objectives through blackmail. By asking for a demilitarised zone the Russian army is showing that they cannot continue their offensive. 

Arestovych says that if an act of aggression (in this case an invasion of Ukraine) lasts longer than a month then it has failed.

Because of the situation in the Zaporizhzhia NPP, China has called for both sides to negotiate. Zelensky said that an accident at the NPP would be equivalent to the Russian military employing nuclear weapons. Leaving the NPP for the Russians would be a sign of weakness for their population. This is an attempt to create a platform for negotiations. The Russians created the 2015 migrant crisis and the Belarus migrant crisis all to lure the West into negotiations. The Russians act like terrorists.

Belarus

Near Gomel in Belarus there were explosions on a military airfield. According to the Belarusian government 2 vehicles collided and burned down. Arestovych believes that a shelling of Kyi on independence day is possible. Big things are happening right now on the strategic level which will later be written about by historians. It is currently the strategic turning point.

Arestovych says that an absolute disaster has occurred with the Russian army that started out the war advancing on 9 directions to 6 months later struggling to capture a farmhouse.

Changes in the Russian command

There are reports that the commander of the Black Sea fleet is being replaced. The Ukrainian general staff reported today that 40% of Russian officers who planned the attack on Ukraine are currently under criminal investigation. Putin is trying to find scapegoats in the army. A catastrophe of this scale launches irreversible processes within the country that launched it. Internal turmoil in Russia is inevitable. A scenario where Putin’s Russia loses the war will inevitably cause internal strife. Regimes are changed as a result of military actions. Arestoych cannot recall a disaster of such scale in Russian history, saying that 1941 was worse but it was a defensive failure and that during the winter war the Soviet army managed to adapt, which the Russians are not doing nearly as much. This will crush Russia from within.

Other

Medvedev has visited the LPR. This is seemingly related to the set up of a referendum. There are preparations for a show trial in Mariupol. This is for the internal electorate. Arestovych does not believe that the Russians will execute Ukrainian POWs. To counteract these displays the Ukrainians need to capture more Russian POWs for exchanges. Arestovych also points out that putting any POWs on trial would be a violation of the Geneva Conventions.

Continued discussions on visa restrictions for Russians and labelling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism

Today in Copenhagen there was a meeting of defence ministers. Included were Scandinavian countries and Britain who are now training Ukrainian infantry.