Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Janat: https://twitter.com/Janat_H1
Day 168, August 10. Summary of Feygin and Arestovych daily broadcast
Overview
Both sides exchange artillery strikes at the same locations. AFU are slowly but successfully pressing forward to Izyum from the south. Failed Russian attacks in Siversk and Bakhmut directions; an attempt to surround Avdiivka from the north and south; attacks in Peski, Mariinka, and Yegorivka directions were also unsuccessful.
RF retaliates for the explosions in Crimea with massive shelling of civilian targets in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mikolayev, Nikopol. Multiple casualties among civilians.
Crimea
An updated number of destroyed RU aircraft: official stats include 9 planes. Some sources say 12 out of 26 aircraft present at the time were destroyed. Others may not be airworthy any time soon. Crimean social media quoted 60 casualties. According to Arestovych, that’s an entire air regiment. Losing staff is a bigger loss than the aircraft; it will take years to replace killed pilots and technicians.
Turning point
The Crimean attack was accomplished exceedingly well, whoever did it: in broad daylight, so the fallout is visible to all with a massive exodus of the population. For the first time, the RU army and society might now expect a different result than what was promised in this war. This narrative can be picked up from RU war journalists who mention the lack of well-trained infantry, staggering losses, faulty target designation and guidance, etc. RU social media include comments like “This is not what we’ve been promised!”. In an intercepted call, a RU soldier complains to his mother that “this is no special military operation, this is a slaughterhouse; we’re just being butchered.” Six months into the war, this is not yet a break but already a crack among those who believed in Putin’s victory. One day war will become unpopular in Russia. According to Arestovych, this psychological change and the threat of internal unrest will be the reason RU troops withdraw.
Weapons and psychological warfare
The HIMARS in Romania in a viral video aren’t necessarily moving to Ukraine. They might be there to prevent attacks from Transnistria. It’s not the number of HIMARS that Ukraine has but the uninterrupted supply of munitions that matters, to quote a Pentagon representative. Those munitions are part of the recent 1-billion military aid package. Ideally, Ukraine would double the quantity of HIMARS to 50 to cover the entire front, the borders with Belarus, Russia, and Transnistria. The distance is comparable to the distance between Tallinn and Gibraltar. The massive continental war cannot be won with 20 pieces of equipment, but modern warfare is also psychological. Germany supplied an additional 4 Gepards. A total 7 Gepards can take down 7 aircraft. That is a substantial loss. The latest hit by one HIMARS rendered the Novokakhovka bridge inoperable. These losses are cumulative. Every time HIMARS precisely hits targets or an aircraft is lost, RU army accumulates fatigue and loses faith in its victory.
If your army loses an entire air regimen, with pilots and planes, you begin to expect new attacks of such magnitude. The remaining five airfields in Crimea and the Black sea fleet are all potential targets.
Yermak’s Interview
Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak gave an interview to Interfax-Ukraine:
-40% of major companies exited Russia
-4,000,000 unemployed
-by the end of 2023 no amount of energy carriers will support RU economy
-the active phase of the war should end before winter
The last point is only possible due to the agreement between the government, the army, and Western partners. The next three months will be “hot” with more “Saki” incidents.
Nuclear Threat
G7 calls on RU to immediately hand ZNPP over to Ukraine and states that nuclear blackmail is unacceptable. G7 insists the ZNPP continues to supply energy to Ukraine.
Tomorrow is the UN Security Council meeting where RU is expected to blame Ukraine. Arestovych speculates RU will be reprimanded, and a new assessment will be given at the UN level of the RU attempts to hold and shoot at the power plant. The new Chornobyl will not be tolerated by the West.
Freezing Debts
Payments of almost $20 billion of overseas debt are frozen for Ukraine for two years. RU propaganda comments on mounting Ukrainian expenses for weapons and other aid and that Ukraine will be in financial slavery for generations to come. Arestovych says it will be RU who pays. This decision was already made and articulated by the world. The debt deferment points to that: Ukraine does not have these means; they will be taken from RF.
Feygin quotes Zelenski: “The more powerful our weapons are, and the greater the range of their use is, the sooner this cruel war will end.” (emphasis by Feygin). This message comes after Novofyodoriivka in Crimea. RF doesn’t accept it was a Ukrainian attack and is unwilling to escalate with nuclear weapons. NATO will consider any such threat as a threat against NATO and will take measures most unpleasant for the RF.
EU Visas
Tourist visas are discussed to be included in the next sanction package. One cannot disassociate from the passport country. RU citizens must feel the weight of collective and personal responsibility for war crimes. Suspending visas will be a mild punishment for the atrocities committed by Russians in Ukraine. This discourse will continue to develop.
