Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1 (please make sure to give him a follow if you are on Twitter!)
Explosions in Crimea
Arestovych jokes that someone smoked in 2 places at once. Storage depot on Novooleksiivka was blown up as well. Arestovych hints that the Ukrainian military industrial complex is “not staying idle” or else it is partisans. Arestovych implies there will be more explosions in the south. 13-SU30SM, 12-SU24MR, 6 helicopters and 1-IL76 were present at the airfield.
The 35th Army of Russia has been assembled in the Enerhodar area, with a large group near Tokmak. It was their depot that was blown up in Novooleksiivka. This army is here to prevent a Ukrainian advance on Melitopol and Crimea. This is what the Russians fear the most. A strike here cripples the defence of the entire southern front from Kherson to Mariupol. If the Ukrainians can reach the Crimean border they can cover the whole Crimea with “all sorts of weapons” without entering Crimea. This would be a catastrophe for Russia.
Arestovych says that the Russians claim that the explosion happened as a result of an accident because that is far less embarrassing to admit than having their formidable Crimean defences pierced. Arestovych tells us that there will be more attacks on targets in Crimea in the coming days. Arestovych says that the people fleeing over the Crimean bridge today were the smart ones.
Unsuccessful Russian attacks on Nova Husarivka. Kharkhiv continues to be shelled. Another unsuccessful Russian attempt to storm Dementiivka. Russian airbase in the Kursk region was also hit today 115km from the Ukrainian border.
To prevent this the Russians have abandoned their main military-political objective of “liberating” the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Arestovych says that in the Donbass, mainly L/DPR are attacking only as a distraction to prevent the Ukrainians from redeploying their reserves to the south. 60% of Russian forces in Ukraine are now in the south. Arestovych says that in the case of a Ukrainian offensive the Russians will not be able to keep their foothold across the Dnieper in Kherson. Arestovych notes that the Russians have assessed the limited capabilities of their forces and are now in a defensive posture.
Unsuccessful Russian advances in the east. Russian tried to attack Pisky, Mar’inka, Vesle all without success. On the Bakhmut direction Russian advance is measured in 10s or 100s of meters. The strongest Russian advances are to the south and west of Bakhmut in Pisky, Avdiivka, Mari’nka. Bakhmutske, Serebrianka also unsuccessful. Successful Ukrainian advances on Dovhen’ke.
Arestovych repeats his idea from yesterdays stream that the Russian advance in Kherson is a distracting manoeuvre. Arestovych believes that the Ukrainian offensive will “surprise the Russians”. The capture of Melitopol will cripple everything including the defence of Kherson, Crimea and Mariupol.
Arestovych says that all of the Russian air defence on the Kherson side of the Dnieper have been destroyed and that the explosion in Crimea caused major damage to the Russian Air Force.
Large amount of storage depots destroyed in the South. Oil storage depot burned down in Horlivka which supplies all the troops from Avdiivka to Mari’nka.
Ukrainian aviation conducted daytime strikes in Kherson today which shows that the Russian AA in that area has been obliterated. Specifically the Russian forces that tried to advance towards Mykolaev yesterday were hit by the aviation.
2-3 weeks ago the Russian high command planned that their offensive would take place from the 8th to the 10th but this has been disrupted by Ukrainian forces. Arestovych says that Ukraine has the initiative.
Arestovych says that Russian military actions in Ukraine for example the continued pointless repairing of the Antonivsky bridge are dictated by the internal Russian political reaction and not military logic.
On the consequences of the war for Russian citizens
Zelensky asks western countries to not give Russians visas. Arestovych says that a passport is not just a document and that having a certain passport automatically carries a collective responsibility with it. Every single person with a
Russian passport must now make their own choice.
Arestovych says that for 30 years Ukraine destroyed its own army because of negligence and are now paying for this with their soldiers blood. The main function of an army is not a successful war but the prevention of war.
Feigyn says that the west is now also paying for facilitating Putin all these years. Russian missiles in Ukraine have at least 31 western components and one even had 160. Arestovych says that Europeans spending winter in a flat that is 3 degrees colder is not the worst price to pay for supporting a murderer for 20 years.
Arestovych says the consequences for Russians will keep getting worse. 40% of the Russian economy is already destroyed even if Sanctions are lifted right now, but the sanctions have not even started working yet. The first effects will start kicking in at the end of September. The 7th packet of sanctions is being discussed. Some sectors have been fully crippled, others will take 10-15 years to recover. Putin’s rule is doomed, no negotiations can save him, even withdrawing troops right now does not change the fact that he is doomed.