Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Battlefield update:
Overall situation can be described with phrase, that’s often used by 🇺🇦 General Staff: “[Russian forces] Did not succeed”
Kharkiv:
Similar as yesterday, Russian attempts to move forward towards Dementiivka – tactical efforts.
Izium:
Russian attempts to counter-attack from Nova Husarivka.
Siversk:
🇷🇺 did put some effort, but did not succeed.
Bakhmut:
Couple hundreds of metres of a 🇷🇺 advance near Bakhmutske, also 🇷🇺 efforts near Pokrovske, Zaitseve, Semyhyria, Wagner PMC was sent there hoping to achieve something.
Avdiivka:
Largest 🇷🇺 advances of about 1km in the grey zone near Vesele, by shortening distance to 🇺🇦 armed forces, not pushing 🇺🇦 back.
Pisky:
Situation here changing every hour, there are heavy battles, but early to discuss any “victories”.
Maryinka:
Russian forces reported of capturing a farm (after half year of battles).
Vuhledar:
Local level 🇷🇺 counterattacks on Pavlivka
Zaporizhia:
Russian forces concentrating at Tokmak, up to 10 BTGs, 3-4 BTGs added in last 24h. Differing opinions – either preparing an offensive, or defence with counter-attacks.
Nova Khakovka:
Group of Russian forces of 10-15 BTGs, unknown if intended to be forwarded to Kherson or Zaporozhye.
Kherson:
2-3 Russian BTGs moved to the west bank, some signs of activation, but the intentions are not clear. Possibly to intended to trick.
Kharkiv, Nikopol, Mykolaiv
This an other locations are regularly shelled. 🇷🇺 artillery shelling everywhere in the 1300km front line, varying intensity. Near Pisky 10 artillery groups was significant, while Nova Khakovka to Enerhodar barely has 10 artillery guns. Active actions only from Siversk to Bakhmut. Izium defending and counter-attacking, possibly Kherson will start acting.
Map of possible 🇷🇺 attacks:
The map shows 3 arrows – Mykolaiv/Voznesensk, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhia. 🇷🇺 doesn’t have enough strength to reach even 1/4th of those arrows. If they try all of them, the commander should receive Hero of 🇺🇦 medal. 🇺🇦 has enough forces to repel.
🇰🇵 North Korea:
🇺🇸 press published rumours of 100k North Korean solders offered to 🇷🇺. Most important to 🇰🇵 would be that somebody feeds them. It’s an intimidation tactic. Expecting each day to hear some similar wild news because Russians don’t know how to force 🇺🇦 to sign peace.
Donbas:
Russia is sending LPR/DPR forces into bloody battles, to gain couple hundreds of metres. This means destroying defences and armies that were built up in last 8 years. 🇷🇺 needs to have less motivated people, as they will not want to accept peace. 30k motivated and armed solders from LNR/DNR, opposing Moscow decision is a significant threat. 🇷🇺 national battalions have a similar purpose – to concentrate and destroy most passionary young people, so that they can’t fight for their own ethnic region.
Partisans:
🇷🇺 collaborator Vitaly Gura from Nova Kakhovka occupation administration was shot, died in hospital. Several more shootings and poisonings, explosion on rail tracks, drone bombing in Crimea Navy HQ. Partisans are only warming up, organisation took them several months. Those events are becoming systematic now. There are a lot of possibilities to buy weapons or explosives from 🇷🇺 solders, 90% are purchased that way.
🇹🇷 Erdogan’s visit in 🇷🇺
Erdogan expressed an opportunity for peace talks. 🇺🇦 would agree to peace talks, if 🇷🇺 would retreat to the line of 23rd February in a couple of days. Otherwise, there will be no peace talks.
Weapons:
Rumours of the ATACMS (300km) missiles possibly delivered soon. In order for 🇺🇦 to win, it needs to somewhat equalise their combat potential, but at the moment 🇷🇺 has missiles with 500km range (Iskander). It’s just a next step. However, the F-16 aircraft with right weapons is equal to 10 ATACMS missiles – the training is taking place, and there is a chance these will be transferred to Ukraine. After all, it all started with reluctance to provide Ukraine with Stingers, but now the HIMARS are hard at work.
🇷🇺 terrorist state:
🇺🇸 marking 🇷🇺 as terrorist could worsen relations with 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China, due to them buying oil and gas from 🇷🇺. This would be huge changes, and 🇺🇸 is carefully evaluating all possible consequences. So far the West has made all necessary decisions, perhaps a little slower than wanted. 🇺🇦 already has Stingers, air-defense, HIMARS, pilots training on F-16 aircraft (from open sources, #Arestovich can’t confirm [air quote]).
There will be no broadcast tomorrow. Next week will be quite busy, probably more skipped broadcasts.
