Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Arestovych is having birthday 🥳

Battlefield update:

No significant changes. Important actions will start in a week. All current actions are of local importance, however they have targets and results.
Kharkiv: local battles, shelling of city. Yesterday 7 out of 8 missiles intercepted.
Izium: relatively quiet, local battles near Sviatohirsk-Prishyb.
Siversk: 🇷🇺 attepmpts near Serbrianka, not very successful
Bakhmut: 🇷🇺 movements near Volodymyrivka and Pokrovske, slow but persistent hundreds of meters per day
Holmivsky: 🇷🇺 pressing on Travneve from flank – hard, but 🇺🇦 holding. 🇷🇺 dream is to encircle from Klynove to Zaitseve
Avdiivka: 🇷🇺 trying to surround from north (Vesele-Lastochkyne) and south (Spartak, Pisky) simultaneously. In the morning 🇺🇦 artillery arrived, and started to send good messages.
Marinka: 🇺🇦 got moved during maneuver defense.

South:

War looks very different, when viewed from individual solder level, brigade level and strategic level. All 🇷🇺 attempts near Donetsk are to provoke 🇺🇦 into bringing reserves there instead of actual direction of attack. 🇷🇺 is concentrating forces in Melitopol-Tokmak and Kherson. It doesn’t make easier for solders getting hit with 152mm artillery, but all other directions are tasked with distractions. 🇺🇦 prepares for 🇷🇺 offensive by hitting 🇷🇺 warehouses and logistics and troop concentrations.
🇺🇦 partisans, special forces and military intel working in harmony. Every time, there is some large hit, it’s also hard work of unnamed people.
These broadcasts will become “explosive” sometime next week, when 🇷🇺 offensive starts. Possibly 🇷🇺 will do careful targeted attacks, right now 🇷🇺 are trying to wear out most battle-ready 🇺🇦 forces, to get into stalemate. Overall objective in grain talks, Balkans, and so on is to force 🇺🇦 into negotiations.

🇺🇦 Success:

🇷🇺 is afraid of any 🇺🇦 success, that will be breaking point of morale for whole campaign. Everything is held together by illusion of 🇷🇺 doing offensive, that’s why 🇷🇺 propaganda is showing off every 100 meters of captured territory. 🇷🇺 is inadvertently announcing, that it can’t continue battle. They can continue pressure, wearing out, but they are afraid of any 🇺🇦 victory. 🇺🇦 task is to get that victory anywhere, and it’s moving towards that.

Zelensky speech:

In dramatic speech Zelensky said that east of 🇺🇦 is hell, and called for civilians to evacuate.
It’s an honor to infantry, who is spending hours in heavy shelling, he is well informed of what’s happening. The same what’s now happening in Pesky-Bakhmut, was happening at Izium-Popasna for 2.5 months every day. It’s now much better, 🇺🇦 has HIMARS, plenty of artillery shells. 🇷🇺 needs to concentrate forces and efforts, to make it hard for 🇺🇦, which it previously did not.
President expressed that: he knows it, there are measures being taken, solders are honored and taken care of.
It’s planned to evacuate 200k civilians, because 🇷🇺 is using barbaric indiscriminate attacks, not because 🇺🇦 is about to lose those cities.

Olenivka:

🇺🇳UN about to investigate bombing. 🇷🇺 started complaining about 🇷🇺 POWs. It’s predicted tactic of using the same accusations. 🇷🇺 now plans to make maximum gain of crime.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Nagorno-Karabakh:

After last clash in 2020, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan realized it can’t complete, and took a pause, just like 🇷🇺 now plans in 🇺🇦. Instead of supporting 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇷🇺 started working on it’s interests, and obtaining a corridor to sea through Nakchivan and 🇹🇷. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan will try to improve it’s positions and obtain maximal gain. At such small wars even single hilltop can change a lot. There probably isn’t going to be decisive victory, it’s going to be negotiations and attempts to trade. There have been many analytics, and the conclusion is simple – everyone would agree to something, if there wasn’t 🇷🇺 Moscow involved. Conflict is very advantageous to 🇷🇺, it can constantly pretend to guarantee something. It’s the same with every ex-USSR conflict – 🇷🇺 first organizes it, then comes with guarantees of peace.

Side note:

15th brigade from 🇷🇺 Samara, which was doing peacekeeping in Nagorno-Karabakh was nearly destroyed twice in 🇺🇦, and one of first largest POW captures [sudden stop, sounds like he said too much].

Other:

Swag shop has gathered funds for assisting 3-4 more people, hopefully new items next week, including baseball caps. The amount given to each (2000€) doesn’t solve everything, but helps each family to get out of a pit.
There is planned broadcast tomorrow, despite being Thursday.