Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
positional war, nothing significant. War for exhaustion – both sides without reserves.
🇷🇺 movements from Balakliia to the Pryshyb (in direction to Kharkiv), due to 🇺🇦 plans. In last 2 days 🇺🇦 pushed 🇷🇺 back near Brazhkivka-Barvinkove. 🇷🇺 attempts for 120 days near Sviatohirsk-Pryshyb [other one].
Failed 🇷🇺 attempts to attack on Hryhorivka-Serebrianka. More 🇷🇺 attempts at Spirne, Bilohorivka.
🇷🇺 trying to reach crossroads of M-03 from Pokrovske. Near Semyhiria 🇷🇺 trying to create risk of encirclement, and force 🇺🇦 to retreat, to avoid urban battles. There are not much forces left, mostly LNR/DNR armies. 🇷🇺 movement speed and artillery support significantly decreased. Currently there are 12-15 BTGs from Siversk to Holmivskyi, in comparison Lysychansk offensive started with 30 BTGs.
🇷🇺 trying to half-encircle Avdiivka from north. Near Pisky 🇷🇺 doing frontal assaults, gained couple hundred metres, 🇺🇦 retreated to more favorable positions. Both locations have doubtful prognosis for 🇷🇺, most likely doing attacks in order to not ask stupid questions.
🇺🇦 advances to Mykilske and Yehorivka
no significant movements, 🇷🇺 accumulating forces near Tokmak-Melitopol. There was some hits at Melitopol in last 2 days.
3 🇷🇺 armies (about 30 BTGs) deployed, command posts on both sides. Right bank about 22-25 BTGs. 🇷🇺 plans offensive on Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv. Citizens should not worry, 🇷🇺 forces are not battle-ready – inflated personnel, many missing, low morale and bad equipment.
🇷🇺 objective is to prepare until 6th of August, but offensive could be delayed. Expecting 🇷🇺 to advance in 2 opposing directions, and get stopped. It would be more complicated, if 🇷🇺 would choose not to attack, and only defend.
🇺🇦 has enough forces to stop 🇷🇺. Enough weapons to stop 🇷🇺 offensive, and create conditions for 🇺🇦 offensive. Yesterday 🇷🇺 train with 40 carts was destroyed. 🇺🇦 has specific intent, the more 🇷🇺 arrives there, the better.
🇺🇸 4 more M142 HIMARS, 🇩🇪 MARS II MLRS.
🇺🇸 next aid package contains of missiles and artillery ammo.
🇺🇦 has obtained anti-radar missiles for aircraft.
🇺🇸 ATACMS missiles with range of 300km promised
It would be nice to have all weapons in double amount. Currently 🇺🇦 can launch 168 missiles in single volley. There are 200 operational level 🇷🇺 targets
Missiles could be intercepted by Tor air defense system, but they have limited range and can’t be deployed everywhere. 🇺🇦 is also using tricks to overcome such defenses.
This is cat and mouse game, both sides changing methods, trying to guess other side methods. Possibly some have been intercepted, but that is very complicated task.
🇷🇺 video of destroying HIMARS on 2nd floor of building:
🇷🇺 military command tries to fool local population, foreign population, and most importantly Putin. Putin allows to be fooled, because he wants to hear good news.
🇺🇦 has TB-2 Bayraktar and 🇺🇸 Kamikaze drones. Rumors of 🇷🇺 getting better with intercepting drones. 🇷🇺 navy couldn’t protect it’s headquarters from home-built drone launched by partisans.
🇷🇺 has radio jammers, that could stop some drones, however not all drones use radio, many are autonomous. There are different methods to overcome jamming.
War is not who shoots who, it’s who outsmarts who. Nobody sends drone in straight line, army is orchestra, where everyone is playing. Best results are from interaction of multiple resources, that need to be organized.
Simplest example: radio jammer is working at some location, suddenly there is artillery shelling – of course it will get turned off and hidden. Meanwhile a drone gets by.
🇺🇸 forces would defend 🇹🇼 directly, as they have promised multiple times. 🇺🇸 forces are not involved in 🇺🇦. 🇺🇦 gets military assistance that has long been dedicated and planned. 🇺🇸 has been fighting WW2 in multiple fronts, now with improved logistics and communications 🇺🇦 shouldn’t get less attention, no matter what happens.
If 🇨🇳 China gets into war with 🇺🇸, helping 🇷🇺 would be least of their priorities. Hard to fight war with somebody who’s trade makes 85% of your economics. After war with 🇨🇳, nobody would be afraid to deal with 🇷🇺, as it’s least scary.
🇽🇰 Kosovo – 🇷🇸 Serbia:
Preliminary information of🇷🇺 special services presence, involved in provocations from 🇷🇸. Everyone understands who is to blame.
Red cross not allowed to visit. 🇷🇺 reasons:
– feed the victory against Azov
– to turn relatives and part of population against current 🇺🇦 government
– involve HIMARS
– provoke brutality from 🇺🇦, use that as argument
Assuming that guarantees (which were confidential) were given by 🇺🇳UN, 🇹🇷 Turkey and Red cross, waiting for their response.
Investigation can ask right questions, that can reveal a lot.
If at the moment of signing grain deals, dies a person who is in grain business, there is no doubt, it is related. Establishing the relations needs more knowledge in business.