Day 150, July 23. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 24 July 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:Β https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

English voice-over video byΒ Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Duration of the war:

The duration of the war depends on depth of theater, strength of sides, and objectives. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί objectives are way out of their strength. They have lost war at Strategic level by end of March, when they could not capture Kyiv. Soon they will loose at Operational level, when they won’t be able to attack, then at Tactical level, which might not be soon however, as πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has shown incredible stubbornness.

Battlefield update:

Kharkiv, Izium, Siversk, Bakhmut: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί doing small tactical offensives, while regrouping at rear, trying to create Tactical-Operational reserves (3-4 BTG) for another offensive in main directions.
Maryinka: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attempts to flank.
Davydiv Brid: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί trying avoid another envelopment. Perspective for πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ success.
Vysykopillia: πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attempting to avoid Battle of Ilovaisk [link]. Disconnect between encircled group and remaining πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces is small. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ is acting awkwardly, not enough forces to completely surround πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί. Still need fights to have tactical surrounding. If πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ doesn’t bring reinforcements, perspective for success can be lost.
Kherson: After damaging Antonovsky bridge (1), πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ artillery damaged bridge near Darivka (2), leaving πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί supplies coming through Nova Khakovka dam (3) and Snihurivka (4). Darivka bridge (2) is not completely destroyed, but that might happen soon. πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is considering pontoon bridge, but if that gets 1 hit, it will float away.
It’s obviously visible, that πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ is seriously working in this direction for 3 weeks with objectives to loosen, break down, and then destroy πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί grouping.

Map of Kherson bridges

Odessa: Looks like it’s a simple revenge, as πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί tried to force some rules in Istanbul, but failed. Due to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί excuses, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be systematic, otherwise πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί would accuse πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ of breaking agreements. Doubtful that πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί would continue attacks, or sink ships.

Weapons:

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ IRIS-T air-defence said to be delayed – it’s just press, they need loud titles. They are not manufactured yet.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Jake Sullivan said that it’s not planned to provide ATACMS (300km) missiles to πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. It doesn’t mean much, as couple of months ago the same was said about M142 HIMARS and aircraft, now πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ pilots are already training. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ has all types of weapons now, aim is to fully rearm to NATO standards.
All announcements about new weapon types are a week or two after they are being used.

Sanctions:

Abramovych was present in Istanbul negotiations, currently has case in court for sanctions against him. Assisting πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ does mean something for πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦, but not to the West. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦’s say in sanctioning something is very limited.

Kherson:

Internet speed throttled due to preparations for referendum, considering banning Youtube, πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί doesn’t want videos to get out.
People asking what to do with businesses in Kherson, if any guidelines. There are no guidelines from πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ parliament, Arestovych recommends to avoid getting a πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί passport as much as possible, make up excuses, etc. It will not be long, until Kherson is freed.

πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί Hungary:

Orban called for peace, saying that sanctions don’t work. It’s only Orban’s party and connections, πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί President and opposition support πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦.
He is moving against whole πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί and NATO, likely will get a reaction, perhaps πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί will switch to majority voting instead of full-agreement.

Next broadcast on Monday.




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