Day 149, July 22. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 23 July 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:ย https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

English voice-over video byย Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

Vysykopillia: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ was having hard situation for 2 weeks, now ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ captured Potomkyne completely and Olhyne partially. There are more than 1000 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ paratroopers (not 2k) in ยพ tactical envelopment. Yesterday ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attempted to break out, but were interrupted by ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ fire.

This is direct consequence of destroying ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ command posts, and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ command being in chaos. Situation was worsening for 2 weeks, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ command did not react in time.

Davydiv Brid, Bilohirka, Velyka Oliksandrivka: ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ cut one of roads going along front-line, denying ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ability to maneuver along front-line. There could be several more envelopments, like in Vysykolillia. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ army can also do tactical envelopment.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ will not provide corridor, but will likely offer to surrender. 1000 solders should have equipment for 2 batallions, and it’s good value for prisoner exchange.

Siversk: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ released fake video from near-Siversk, where showing prisoners from Lysychansk, then another video from 2014. Looks like, they don’t have any real progress to show.
Bakhmut: Small ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ advances near Pokrovske. Some classified information shows that prognosis for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is unfavorable.
Kharkiv: some attempts to attack, getting countered.
Izium: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ constantly attacking, no progress, looks like circus.
Svitlodarsk: ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attempts from Holmivsky to Svitlodarsk. Area should be carefully monitored, as ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ are trying to create envelopment from Vidrodzhennia to Semyhiria, and from Holmivsky to Novoluhanske. This was Arestovych’s zone of responsibility in 2018.
Horlivka: Unsuccessful ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ attempts on New York. Today there was explosion in ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ controlled Horlivka.
Marinka, Vuhledar: for 150th day in row attempts to capture Novomykhailivka
Zaporozhye: tactical actions, nothing significant. Video of kamikaze drone destroying BM-21 Grad. Other report of wounded ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ solders, circumstances unknown.
Nikopol: indiscriminate attacks from BM-27 Uragan for over week across Dnipro river. In response ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ hits ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military in Enerhodar.

Istambul agreement:

No direct agreement between ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ. Any ships traveling to/from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ will be checked in ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท. Commission will include members from ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ and U.N. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ports remain in control if ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ military.
Commission will provide safe routes to ships, without minesweeping.
Forbidden to approach ships from other ships/aircraft/drones/boats/etc.
If ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ships approach, they will be fired at. Main focus on ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท providing assistance, in case of problems.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has hopes for part sanctions being held back (aircraft parts, agriculture).
To U.N. and ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ it is important to avoid food crisis in Africa and Middle East, thus even selling ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ food is step in right direction.
To ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ it’s important that there is no cease-fire, no lost control of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ports.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ did attempt to force some agreements, but didn’t succeed.
Estimated value of exports is $1bn/month.

Europol denies arms smuggling from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ:

Control system was created at beginning of weapons supplies, now it’s being strengthened. There is no problem in tracking heavy weapons. Europol is mostly interested in small arms, that can be carried. Smear campaign to accuse ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ of weapons smuggling has failed due to timely reaction.

Weapons supplies:

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง has already sent 6 Stormer air-defense vehicles – it’s automated Starstreak missiles on armored vehicle.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ additional assistance worth $270m including 4 new M142 HIMARS, 580 Phoenix Ghost armed drones, equals to 350 hit medium-armored targets in near rear.

Accent to hit near tactical zone at brigade level – weapons storage, comms equipment, command posts, air defense systems, artillery, after destroying operational level targets with HIMARS. After that, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ can make hard-to refuse offers, like at Vysykopillia.
Imagine, if each artillery piece, air defense system, command post is hit soon after being deployed – it becomes impossible to control anything, and later you even don’t have anything to attack with.

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pentagon announced that 1000s of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ junior officers have been killed.
CNN reports that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has committed 85% of it’s forces to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ war.
Currently 135-150k troops located in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, they are being rotated regularly.
All ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ units have been in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, even 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division from Sakhalin, which hasn’t been used in Afghanistan or Chechnya war. 85% refers to 15% currently located in ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ, many are in rotation.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ started invasion with 8 out of 10 ground armies, adding 2 later, doing many rotations and mix-ups since then. Many units have lost battle capabilities (40-60%) several times, then restored with new solders.
Despite committing such great size, ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ doesn’t have any significant progress.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ losses:

Zelensky mentioned 30 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ fatalities and 250 wounded per day [link].
Most single-day losses in Donbas region (single direction), was at end of April, 100 people/day, approx 2 or 3 times. Mostly 20-30 dead per day.
Later ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ stopped being lucky, lack of ammo, increase of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ intensity, for 2 months (mid-April to beginning of July) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ had hard time and correspondingly heavy losses.
There have been days with 13-15 hours of uninterrupted shelling, when ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ had no way to respond.
There is no higher military honor, than being ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ infantry, what they do, would make any world army proud.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel:

Some changes in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ government, for the better.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ closed Hebrew repatriation agency in Moscow.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ did attack on UAV factory in ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Damascus, possibly producing for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ or Hezbollah.
There have been noticeable cargo flights from ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ.

Other:

Several people had ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ citizenship revoked, no comments from officials yet.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Senate introduces resolution, classifying ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ actions in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ as genocide. 2 key points – indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and deportations of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ nationals to ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ. Expecting first results (possibly court case in Hague) in 3 months.

Swag shop profits will be sent to Oleksiv who got hurt in Vinnytsia bombings

Photo of cat saved from Snake Island. He has found hooman.
Cat




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