Day 148, July 21. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 21 July 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis:Β https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

English voice-over video byΒ Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attacking all front-line with aviation (Kharkiv, Izium, Siversk, Bakhmut, Zaporozhye) – it means πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί can not advance, artillery is not managing. This indicates the Russians are unable to go through, unable to carry out the order of their Minister of Defence. But attacking along the frontline is a mistake.

War is about concentrating efforts, now πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is once again attempting everywhere.
Siversk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka: all πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί attacks repelled.
Kherson: many πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί warehouses and command posts bombed (3 large bombings), πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί did unsuccessful attempt near Blahodatne,
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί bombing Kharkiv, Mykolaiv. Aviation not so brave anymore after the Su-35 was taken down.

Alexey Selivanov:

Worked in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Ministry of Internal Affairs during Yanukovych presidency. In 2014 he betrayed Ukraine and moved to Luhansk/Donetsk militia, now head of the occupied Zaporozhye police. Ideologically supporting πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί war, a hero of Luhansk/Donetsk, he was kidnapped by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί FSB, held in a basement. Federal media got involved, indicated swinging in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί supporters. This is just beginning, when πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ will start capturing cities, conflicts will increase. Apart from him, from the heroes of the 2014 only Khodakovskyy remains, and it is not known for how long. This rift is potentially very dangerous for the Russians.

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί losses:

Moscow Times reporting 41,666 complaints about missing solders by end of April [link]. Even if 10k have been found, that’s 30k lost. May and June had most intense battles, expecting even more losses.
Officially πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ reports almost 39k killed πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί military, 23k (low estimate) from mobilised LNR/DNR, 10-12k private military [Wagner], total about 60-70k only killed.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ reporting 15k only verified killed, but they check thoroughly.

Putin’s health:

CIA said that it doesn’t have information on Putin’s health issues. However, visibly Putin has many mobility issues. Most damaging to his psyche health is 22 years being at power, huge blood trail, stress, expecting killer in anyone. Absolute power perverts absolutely. Putin has issues with his emotional perceptions, he strongly experiences simple emotions – danger and satisfaction, this makes him rational, which is good if related to nuclear threats. Putin will hold on to his life and power most of all, use of nuclear weapons goes against all of that. He’s not like Hitler, he will not shoot himself.
From Putin’s reactions and plans, he simply does not seem to get the full picture. Soon he will realise that plans need to be reviewed into gestures of good will.

Istanbul meeting:

There will be no cease-fire agreement. Idea is simple – πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ gets to transport grain, while πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡· Turkey controls that πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί doesn’t interrupt or attack.

πŸ‡§πŸ‡Ύ Belarus:

Lukashenka announced that for πŸ‡§πŸ‡Ύ security it’s enough that only πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has nuclear weapons. Apparently there was too much international noise. Breaking NPT treaty, especially during largest war in Europe is double suicidal. They likely still have non-nuclear Iskander’s, but no nuclear warheads on them.

Sanctions:

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί confirmed 7th pack, but contents of individual sanctions are not revealed yet. These will have some exceptions for the πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί agriculture, most likely in preparations to tomorrow’s Istanbul meeting. Exeptions to aviation spare parts, in order for πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί to maintain safety at international flights.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί are being shown, that if they keep reasonable politics, they have chance of partially staying in international laws. This creates communication channels, which again are good to avoid nuclear threats.

Weapons:

Britain announced significant supplies – 20x M109 self-propelled howitzers, hundreds of kamikaze drones, air-defense systems [link].
Hundreds of kamikaze drones is significant amount, 50 at single location can destroy everything important – artillery, command posts.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ command hints that air-defence is either already in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦, or will arrive very soon. Most interestingly πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Stormer and πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Gepard tanks can be used as air-defense during an offensive.
Reports of 1000 armoured vehicles delivered to πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦.Β Yermak announced lots of surprises soon, with aim to finish war before winter.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Air Force announced that πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ will get western aircraft. Nomenclature of weapons is significantly increasing, with aim to upgrade πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ military to NATO weapons.
It is visible that πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ is building closed-contour offensive group, able to do combined attack.

Closed borders:

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ males still can not leave country. Arestovych strongly supports differentiated mobilisation – accepting military professionals and motivated persons, while allowing unmotivated persons to leave, especially if they can work abroad and support families financially.
Arestovych is part-time advisor. Decisions are made by government based on military estimates, they might have more information, and should be trusted, even in mistakes.

Photo of cat saved from Snake island. More clear photo tomorrow.




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