Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Battlefield update:
Sumy,Chernihiv,Kharkiv: Russian artillery shelling, no significant movements.
Izium: Russian movement attempts towards Sloviansk with no success, artillery shelling.
Siversk: attempts to advance from Verkhnokamianske and Bilohorivka.
Bakhmut: 🇷🇺 had some success near Pokrovske (NEE of Bakhmut), controlling crossroads.
Avdiivka: 🇷🇺 attempts in north.
Zaporozhye: no significant activities
Kherson: Ukrainian strike at the Antonvskiy bridge (under 🇷🇺 control), resulted in destroyed air-defence position and some fortifications. Russians kindly provided footage. Doubtful that there’s an aim is to destroy bridge by Ukraine however. Additionally, two warehouses in Nova Khahkovka attacked, and a 🇷🇺 SU-35 shot down near Nova Khakovka during air ambush.
Destroying bridges is ungrateful and uneasy task. 🇺🇦 has already proven capability of solving hard tasks, if there is objective, 🇺🇦 will make crossing bridge very uncomfortable. Another bridge to the West coast of Dnipro is in Nova Khakhovka dam is under threat, 🇺🇦 is monitoring that for over a week. There is rail bridge too in Kherson, but trains are easy to spot, and hitting it can be expensive. Overall, this must be an extremely complicated situation for Russians and their supplies in this direction.
Weapons:
🇫🇷 6 more CAESAR artillery are on the way, in addition to existing 12. Perfect weapon for counter-battery fire. Videos appeared online of 🇺🇦 solders doing training on 🇩🇪 Gepard AA tank.
🇺🇦 Offensive:
1st rule of war is not to do obvious things. Expecting 🇺🇦 to surprise everyone. Going South for Ukraine might be to obvious. Yet Arestovych says – “Russians, you are done!”. A lot going on, such as Ukrainian troops training in the UK, in addition to accumulation of supplies. 🇷🇺 still has illusions of capturing Bakhmut, Siversk, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but those illusions will soon turn into bloody tears. We will wait until Russian command says – “No more!”, and we will start.
🇮🇷 Iran:
Putin’s visit to obtain UAVs, seems unsuccessfully, but it is still possible. Iran does have UAVs which have been used in many regional conflicts, however, this shows weakness of the Russian military industry, which, despite Russia’s natural riches has to turn to sanctioned Iran for such basic equipment like the UAVs. The situation is generally complex as 🇷🇺 and 🇮🇷 are competing for influence in the Middle East. 🇹🇷 Erdogan was present, and few days ago 🇹🇷 denied possibility to provide Bayraktars to 🇷🇺 .
UAVs and artillery:
🇷🇺 main weapon – artillery, is becoming increasingly impossible to use due to HIMARS destroying ammo supplies. Counter-battery fire is decreasing due to radars being lost. 🇺🇦 has 2 drones in each platoon, accuracy of recon and targeting is significantly better. 🇷🇺 needs drones to match 🇺🇦 capabilities.
🇷🇺 has ORLAN-10 in large quantities, as they seem to be built in sheds. They are used to target artillery, and it’s problematic, but they are used at brigade or regiment level. At battalion and company level, 🇷🇺 has significant problems with UAVs, they started crowdfunding some 40-80 days ago, while 🇺🇦 started 8 years ago.
Training to use UAVs for artillery targeting is another complicated problem. 🇷🇺 is now trying to catch up.
🇺🇦 artillery units with UAVs are choosing targets independently, without large centralised system, which 🇷🇺 can’t do at brigade level. At the peak of Lysychansk offensive Russians were using 45-60k shells daily, this now dropped to 15-20k thanks to HIMARS impact.
Sanctions:
New sanctions include 55 persons.
Confiscating property is complicated in western countries, sometimes even involving parliamentary work.
Gold included (1/3 of military budget), energy not included in 7th pack, probably will follow later in 8th or 9th. It’s important that new sanctions are being added.
🇺🇦 officials:
Today parliament voted for sacking head of SBU and Prosecutor General.
There are significant changes ongoing in SBU, focus on people who have proven themselves in 2014-2016 war at battlefield. Objective is to shake service, and significantly increase its capabilities, make enemy afraid of it.
