Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🇷🇺 Shoigu orders to start offensive, this is just informational addition to current state. Added with parallel threats from 🇷🇸 Serbian president, multiple telegram channels threatening war with NATO, if 🇺🇦 doesn’t agree to peace. The same happened in 2014, when Minsk agreements were made. Those allowed 🇷🇺 to hold conquered territories, as they weren’t able to capture more. There wasn’t any good will, 🇷🇺 were simply stopped, now trying to repeat the same. 🇷🇺 military-political leaders understand that they have reached plateau. 🇷🇺 will still be able to attack, but their peak power was a month ago, while 🇺🇦 will become stronger.
🇺🇦 is not afraid of threats, there is a plan – to bury everyone from Kremlin regime (not the 🇷🇺 nation). Greetings from 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇯🇴 Jordan and some other countries.
Kharkiv: 🇷🇺 144th division and 80th motor rifle unit, whole 1 BTG preparing to attack. Tactical actions in the same locations, artillery shelling, yet it was the first night when no shell or missile landed in Kharkiv.
Izium: Again fights in the same places, most powerful part of 🇷🇺 forces can’t move for 100 days already.
Siversk and Bakhmut: nothing has changed, same attempts to flank and encircle, as 🇷🇺 is afraid of street battles after heavy losses they took in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. 🇷🇺 has significant forces, of about 50 BTGs in area, however most reports coming in say attacks are being repelled. 🇷🇺 has lost it’s advantage of artillery, which was crucial for it’s ability to advance. There is still significant traction, and possibly 🇷🇺 will advance, however their chances of capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are laughable.
Zaporozhye: some movements started, but that will be discussed on Monday, because it’s still forming.
Kherson: again the same, 🇺🇦 bombing with artillery. There are some 15 worn out BTGs, about 12-15k 🇷🇺 solders. When all warehouses and command posts are reduced to 0, they would just give up, as they don’t have ammo, fuel nor command.
There are several layers of mine fields, however those must be guarded in order to be effective. Without ammo, fuel and air-defense nobody would guard them.
Visibly no changes, despite the order to start an offensive. There are little Russian forces in south.
Weapons resale accusations:
🇺🇦 DefMin O.Reznikov refuted accusations of weapons sale [link]. Most modern weapons have GPS trackers, manufacturers know where they are used. It’s all related to 🇷🇺 informational goals – to slow down or stop weapons transfers.
Russian agents working in this direction are monitoring systematic influence. There is systematic focus on slowing down western supplies, and attempts on pushing 🇺🇦 military command into giving up.
Hypothetical question – how do you move out of 🇺🇦 a CAESAR that’s sold. There are no ships, no air flights from 🇺🇦. You must drive it through 🇪🇺, in a way that none of security services sees it.
🇺🇸 declined creating of commission to track possible weapons resale, they don’t have lost weapons.
Skibitsky confirmed that MLRS can be used against targets in Crimea [link], as it is territory of 🇺🇦. Seems implying that 🇺🇦 has agreed to not strike against territory of 🇷🇺. Crimea bridge (located in 🇺🇦 territorial waters) will be hit as soon, as 🇺🇦 gets capabilities, it is important for 🇷🇺 supplies, which should be interrupted.
It appears that regions and regional governors are tasked with recruiting army, including salaried troops. This is part of humiliating governors, in order for them to prove loyalty to regime. Recruiting at regional level means eliminating active part of population, and people do understand that, they will act in response. Also this means recognising inability to do full mobilisation. It’s impossible to implement politically, economically, structurally and resource-wise.
🇷🇺 army boots are terrible, they don’t even have winter variant. In February 🇷🇺 solders were stealing boots from fallen 🇺🇦 solders.
🇺🇸 Biden’s visit in middle east:
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia agreed to increase oil production from 10 to 13 mil barrels during 2 months. It should be painful hit on 🇷🇺 energy sector.
Announcements supporting 🇺🇦 territorial integrity.
Biden is building coalition of 🇮🇱 Israel and middle east kingdoms against 🇮🇷 Iran (possibly allying with 🇸🇾 Syria and 🇷🇺), limiting 🇷🇺 influence and increasing pressure, controlling oil price. Rumours of 🇨🇳 China participating in negotiations.
Negotiations are happening unexpectedly smooth and fast, even 🇩🇪 Germany managed to decrease dependence from 40% to 25% during 2 months is very fast.
It’s much better that issues are solved during summer, not having crisis in winter.
Next broadcast on Monday