Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
🇷🇺 didn’t have an operational pause.
Sumy, Chernihiv: no bombings today, yet still danger.
Kharkiv: bombing in city center, 20+ wounded, some killed. Belgorod district in 🇷🇺 getting reinforcements, but not necessarily intended to Kharkiv. No risk in capturing city, but can disrupt 🇺🇦 plans.
Izium: 🇷🇺 attempting to attack near M-03 road, unsuccessful. More reserved after huge losses 2 days ago.
Siversk-Bilohorivka: 🇷🇺 forces doing uninterrupted attack for 3 days, trying to pass near river, no success. Haven’t reached Hryhorivka.
Popasna: 🇷🇺 wants to reach Rai-Oleksandrivka / Malynivka, to create another pocket [map]. Most battle-ready forces, including experienced LNR-DNR units.
Bakhmut: another group wants to approach Bakhmut from south, to cut off road to Zaitseve, creating another pocket.
This shows, 🇷🇺 plans to create 2 tactical pockets, and unite them, but are afraid to take on cities, their losses are too high. Total about 40 BTGs, which is last battle-ready forces 🇷🇺 has. Last 3 days even with aviation support, 🇷🇺 did not had significant progress. If not for 🇺🇦 HIMARS bombings, offensive would be much stronger.
Avdiivka, Marinka: 🇷🇺 attacks unsuccessful.
Zaporozhye: 🇷🇺 forming at Mykhailivka, not at Vasylivka as before .
Kherson: 🇺🇦 doing series of attacks on command posts, concentrations of forces and warehouses. In last few days over 30 attacks done (yesterday 13-14 alone), destroyed multiple warehouses, command posts with 12+ senior officers and couple of generals, hundreds of regular solders. Chornobaivka #26.
Even some accurate attacks inside Kherson targeting military hiding near civilian buildings, no civilian causalities. This can possibly be used to capture cities. HIMARS missiles have circular error probability of 3-3.5m.
🇷🇺 trying to figure out how to reduce damages by reducing concentration, however military power comes from concentration. Distributing or moving to rear would somehow work, but would significantly reduce 🇷🇺 battle potential.
10 HIMARS have significantly changed situation in advantage to 🇺🇦.
Some warehouses in 120km distance have blown up, everyone is wondering how. 🇷🇺 expecting to panic soon, as they don’t have anything to counter HIMARS. Battle capabilities are expected to decrease due to warehouses and command posts moved to rear. Amount of HIMARS and hits are only going to increase.
Zelensky orders to liberate 🇺🇦 south:
At minimum it should happen before planned referendum. Situation in Kherson is already intense, 🇷🇺 solder going to Kherson can be accounted as dead.
Publishing this order is likely a reaction on Putin’s “we haven’t started yet”.
Raising readiness of 🇷🇺 nuclear forces will be noticed by western intelligence agencies fast, and will have reaction. The more ready 🇷🇺 nuclear forces become, the stronger reaction from the West. 🇷🇺 knows this well, thus Lavrov even said that 🇷🇺 will not use nuclear weapons in 🇺🇦. 🇺🇦 security services have access to some 🇷🇺 internal documents, nuclear attack is being discussed as non-desirable and insane.
Mobilisation is being discussed, but unlikely due to lack of weapons and politically due to discontent of population. At internal polls, about 50% don’t want to continue war, so if 50% of soldiers are against, it’s getting complicated. In army you can’t give orders that won’t be followed. From summer conscripts only 17% have been successfully conscripted. If mobilisation is announced, it would end Putin’s regime faster.
U.S. congresswoman accusations against Yermak [link]:
Yermak had conversation US President’s National Security Advisor Jacob Sullivan, if he is 🇷🇺 spy, 🇺🇸 would be aware.
Expecting 🇺🇸 to check again after accusations, if they are found to be false, trust and cooperation will increase. Another possibility is, if 🇺🇸 find out that Yermak is spy, and continues to cooperate, as gains outweigh risks. 🇺🇸 will investigate this, waiting for result.
Stopping weapon supplies during investigation will harm 🇺🇦 much more.
Just in – large ammo warehouse hit at Nova Khakovka.
There will be no broadcast tomorrow.