Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
No significant changes, small tactical actions, mostly near Izium, and frontal attempts from Bakhmut to Siversk, attempts to pass Bakhmut from south. 🇷🇺 keeps relocating forces from Zaporozhye to Kherson. 🇺🇦 keeps attacking warehouses, 🇷🇺 keeps bombing cities – Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy district, Chernihiv.
Chornobaivka #25 at 14:23, still blowing up hour later.
🇺🇦 forces got stopped. Across border, in 🇷🇺 there is 164th division and some navy border guard force. It is significant force, and will cause problems, but not enough to capture Kharkiv. Attacking Kharkiv doesn’t fit 🇷🇺 objectives, most likely they will go to Sloviansk/Kramatorsk. Khakriv has enough anti-air defenses, but intercepting artillery and unguided MLRS is not their task.
🇺🇦 did hard hit on 🇷🇺 trying to quickly follow retreating 🇺🇦 units from Lysychansk. Details can’t be revealed for now.
🇷🇺 tempo of preparations (not offensive) has significantly decreased, due to destroyed ammo and equipment warehouses of units near Sloviansk, Siversk and Bakhmut.
🇷🇺 doing some small probing attempts, but preparing for concentrated offensive with attempts of breaking 🇺🇦 defense is very problematic. After 1-1.5 months 🇷🇺 offensive attempts will cease.
🇺🇦 raised flag on Snake Island. 🇷🇺 did missile attack, but too late – there is only flag, 🇺🇦 doesn’t intend to keep garrison [link].
2 🇺🇸 Senators, who are pushing for marking 🇷🇺 as terrorism sponsor, visited Kyiv [link]. If this law is passed, any country trading with 🇷🇺 will get hard sanctions from 🇺🇸. This can be compared to nuclear option in finances.
🇬🇧 UK politics:
Course of against 🇺🇦 will not change after Johnson’s resignation, there is massive support of 🇺🇦. Liz Truss or Ben Wallace will not be worse in support. Liz Truss even proposes new system of security guarantees, building a geopolitical system that can’t be abused.
Decisions made by NATO and G7 are not prepared in 2 days, and not canceled in 2 years. Even if in future conflict is frozen, any politician who calls for peace with Putin will get torn apart by press and opposition. International politics is built on trust, US can’t stop supporting 🇺🇦, as it can’t stop supporting 🇹🇼 Taiwan.
Putin supports status of mobilized troops in 🇺🇦 equal to 🇷🇺 army, unclear if that implies paying in case of death, that would be 70bn rubles total. Politically this means, 🇷🇺 has effective control, having another proof that separatists are not separate country. Reports of 🇷🇺 already mobilizing people from Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.