Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

Pause, preparations for what is going to happen next.
Small tactical level advances near Kharkiv, Izium, Popasna, Vuhledar, Kherson.

Most 🇷🇺 forces concentrated from Izium and Lyman to Sloviansk, estimated 22-25 BTGs, but they are constantly regrouping. Whenever they try to move somewhere, they get punched in face, and start regrouping. 🇷🇺 has set up most operational infrastructure – rear units, command centers, radio network, can advance soon.

Popasna 🇷🇺 forces are gaining momentum, attempting to reach Bakhmut. Some forces attempting frontal assault on line Siversk-Bakhmut.
Zaporozhye: relocating 3-4 BTGs to Kherson (North)
Kherson: 🇺🇦 small advances near Vysokopilla, 🇷🇺 trying to stop

Main focus will be on Sloviansk/Kramatorsk and Bakhmut, there are contours of big pocket, but it is too wide, looks like 🇷🇺 will have to do frontal assault.

Rumors:

🇷🇺 destroying 2 HIMARS, resale of CAESAR artillery, giving up Odessa, mobilization of women – all denied. Even none of Tockhka-U launchers are destroyed, and those are slow. [followed by long rant on distrust]

Air-Defense:

On July 3rd, 🇺🇦 celebrated 1000 hits, some divisions have hit over 30 and even 50 objects, that is significant experience. 🇷🇺 doesn’t have much launch areas – Belarus, mainland Russia, Caspian sea area, and Black Sea – all those are known. Even all high-speed ramjet Oniks missiles have been intercepted in last 2 weeks.
Sanctions have crippled 🇷🇺 missile manufacturing down 70%.

🇬🇧UK Minister resignations:

In Post-USSR countries, leaders can somehow determine country’s course under specific conditions (majority parliament), but in western democracies course is determined by mix of common interests, and decisions against Putin are deeper than name of Johnson or Biden. Expecting that war will be over, before 🇺🇸 U.S. elections, possibly some minor conflicts near some city.

🇷🇺 army has lost capabilities to achieve anything in 🇺🇦, without concentrating 50%+ of their forces, and that takes a lot of effort, time and even losses, while 🇺🇦 is getting more and more western weapons. Whenever 🇷🇺 takes some forces away, that direction is followed by 🇺🇦 actions, possibly even counter-offensive.

Security guarantees:

In future, in case of danger, theoretically guarantees could include immediate transfer of weapons. Guarantees could be needed in transition period, when 🇺🇦 joins NATO.

Unusually, tomorrow on Thursday no break.
Profits from merchandise shop will be used to help victims of war.
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