Day 129, July 2. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

Posted on 02 July 2022

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by Atis

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

English voice-over video by Privateer Station:

Original video in Russian:

Battlefield update:

Most locations don’t have anything significant, main theaters are Lysychansk-Popasna and Kherson.
Lysychansk: 🇷🇺 are located on southern suburbs of Lysychansk, and did cross Siversky Donets river near Pryvillia (NW). Situation has become dangerous, but it’s not first risky situation. Ukraine military command will not hesitate to take appropriate actions, like they did in Zolote/Hirske. Situation should be clear within next 2 days (Monday update). There are many options, retreat is only one of options. 🇷🇺 fuel warehouse destroyed, that was supplying Lysychansk offensive, possibly damaging rail infrastructure.

Popasna: Corps level 🇷🇺 ammo warehouse destroyed (unspecified western weapon). 🇷🇺 shifting forces along front-line, which is very advantageous to defenders. 🇷🇺 does not have any more reserves, objectives will be attempted with existing forces.

Kherson: Unconfirmed attack on 🇷🇺 warehouse. Artillery duels, advantage to 🇺🇦, due to each artillery unit being serviced by aerial (drone) recon. Currently 🇺🇦 with about 200 artillery units is creating significant problems to 1300 🇷🇺 units. 🇺🇦 expecting to double it’s amount, it’s a matter of time.

In last 2 weeks total 19 🇷🇺 warehouses destroyed. 🇷🇺 will have significant supply issues, leading to decreased artillery support, giving time and space for 🇺🇦 forces. Western weapons achieving Operational level objectives – destroying enemy rear, while being outnumbered.

 

If 🇷🇺 captures Lysychansk, front line will become shorter, density increasing, which would create advantage for 🇺🇦, which is defending. Only way for 🇷🇺 to attack would be frontal, which does not go well near Izium. 🇷🇺 spent 90 days and all of it’s forces capturing Popasna, Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk. There are 6 more large cities left in Donbas, well connected, and with good defensive positions. 🇷🇺 has no hope capturing them.

 

🇧🇾 Belarus:

Lukashenka is maneuvering, mentioning WW3, showing to Putin, that he is ready but situation doesn’t allow. There are still no signs of forming offensive groups. It is possible, that 🇺🇦 started relocating forces from 🇧🇾 border to East, and 🇧🇾 now reacting and trying to create danger, and fix 🇺🇦 forces in place.

Kherson:

People escaping through Crimea, phones getting inspected at checkpoints. They are allowed to return to 🇺🇦 even without documents. Discussion with 🇨🇭Switzerland to represent interests of 🇺🇦 citizens in 🇷🇺.
Offensive plans are national secret, however it is obvious that 🇺🇦 could approach from North and South, creating situation for 🇷🇺 to escape through 2 bridges. Hypothesis, that 🇷🇺 would switch to defense in August, but 🇺🇦 would not allow referendum. Even 5 M142 HIMARS would be enough to clear west coast of river.
🇺🇦 aviation destroyed Tor anti-air system today, which is quite complicated to do. Working aviation is another bad news for 🇷🇺.

Prisoners of war:

Total amount is known, but not disclosed. Objective is to return everyone. Perspective of this is a delicate topic, to not harm any progress. Military intelligence agency is working on exchange. Any attempts to assist in 🇷🇺 courts are useless, due to courts not being independent. 🇺🇦 has methods to create irresistible offers to 🇷🇺, prisoners getting returned shows it is working. 144 returned is a lot. 🇺🇦 touching system of interests of specific persons.
Kadyrovytes, pilots and special services agents are being exchanged well, they have good influence, nobody in 🇷🇺 cares about simple soldiers. 🇺🇦 gives preference to women and wounded – categories who have it hardest to be prisoners. 🇺🇦 is confident to exchange everyone.

There is so much information, that can’t be told, after war expecting about 6 months of stories.
After war in 🇺🇦, expecting war in 🇷🇺. Possibly 🇺🇦 would be called as peacekeepers. Putin isn’t appointing successor, expecting situation to be as after Stalin’s death.

There will be no broadcast tomorrow.




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