Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
Sumy, Chernihiv – shelling, Sumy governor calls for caution
Kharkiv – constant city shelling, 🇷🇺 attempts to cut road to Staryi Saltiv, and reduce risk of 🇺🇦 crossing Pechenihy water reservoir.
Izium – 🇷🇺 restarted movements on same directions – Barvinkove, Dolyna, Bohorodychne, Sviatohirsk, Pryshyb, not successful.
Lysychansk – 🇷🇺 attempting to storm from South, factory partially captured, battles ongoing
Popasna group – advancing on Vovchiarivka-Malorizantseve, attempting to reach Lysychansk from rear, but not successful
Bakhmut – concentrated active 🇷🇺 movements, doubts about results
New York, Avdiivka – unsuccessful 🇷🇺 movements
Vuhledar – artillery duels, pause
Zaporozhye – nothing
Kherson – artillery battles, 🇺🇦 having more success. 🇺🇦 liberated Potomkyne village (Kryvyi Rih direction), has perspective there.
Mykolaiv – constant city shelling, today 10 rockets.
Odessa – 3 more Kh-22 launched today, hit apartment building and children sports camp, 1 child dead [link]
Supposedly bombings are done, in order for military to have excuse – we are doing something, we have targets. Irrelevant, that they miss, or won’t have any effect.
In fact, opposite effect is achieved, 🇺🇦 is getting NASAMS air defense, which wasn’t offered during worst bombings at the start of war.
Such rocket attacks have been used as last measure in wars before – in Iran-Iraq war, Armenia-Azerbaijan war, when nothing can be done on ground, but at least missiles can be launched to have some excuse.
Order to cancel could only come in few weeks, after analysts count cost and damages.
Reports of successful 🇺🇦 M142 HIMARS bombing, many 🇷🇺 solders killed.
🇷🇺 did emergency drill on Crimea bridge, practicing for reaction in case of attack.
If needed, and having means, 🇺🇦 would hit the bridge without hesitation. Currently it is not possible.
🇷🇺 attempted to control North-West of the Black sea, control could have led to landing in Odessa or Transdnistria. Control become impossible after sinking of cruiser Moskva, when 🇷🇺 navy retreated to 200km, making supply problematic.
🇺🇦 would probably not attempt to hold it. Possibly aerial operation to plant a flag, but 🇺🇦 doesn’t need it’s own Chornobaivka. It’s stupid idea to repeat 🇷🇺 mistakes, and put a garrison on island.
Freeing Snake island doesn’t help grain transport, Black sea is still blocked by 🇷🇺 navy.
Removing 🇷🇺 increased security in North-West of Black sea, and damaged 🇷🇺 morale.
In order to secure grain transport, there is need for naval and air protection of minesweepers and cargo ships. For now this is not happening.
Liberating Snake island is Operational level success, whole region is free of 🇷🇺 forces.
Putin and Lukashenka are creating informational campaign, to appear as risk of 🇧🇾 invasion. In order to have attack capability, 🇧🇾 would have to do mobilization for at least 1-2 months, and 15-20k of 🇷🇺 forces. 🇷🇺 wouldn’t send 🇧🇾 army alone, only mixed or 2nd echelon, otherwise 🇺🇦 would gain a lot of equipment and volunteers. There is no 🇷🇺 army in 🇧🇾, only maintenance staff for missiles, radars and airports.
For 🇺🇦 security services, 🇧🇾 is transparent, if there would be danger, they would inform public. Both Lukashenka and 🇧🇾 military are doing everything possible to avoid war.
🇨🇿Czech and 🇸🇰 Slovakia are assisting with repairs and upgrades of 🇺🇦 equipment. They are significant hub of military manufacturing since before WW2. 🇨🇿 has assisted with all possible weapon types, from tanks to helicopters.
🇩🇪 providing 6 more PzH-2000, 3000 Matador anti-tank missiles, possibly better than Javelin. 🇺🇦 army is doing training on Gepard anti-air systems. Recent supplies include portable anti-air systems, bullets, which are still very much needed. Recent polls show 44% for increasing military assistance, over 20% for keeping current level.
🇫🇷 is sending more CAESAR artillery and VAB armored vehicles.
Not every assistance is announced [nod], so expect more interesting things.
🇺🇸 announced $820m assistance, including air-defense systems. Pentagon data shows 800 out of 1200 companies ready to manufacture new weapons for 🇺🇦 during lend-lease. Lend-lease is still ahead – estimated August-October.
From 🇺🇸 initiative, 51 countries agreed to provide military assistance to 🇺🇦, 140k anti-tank systems, 500 artillery, 600k artillery rounds [link]. There were 53 countries in coalition against Hitler. Hitler had more allies, 🇷🇺 doesn’t even have allies, it has countries that abuses financial benefits, and ask for more.
NATO secretary general Stoltenberg promised assistance to rearm 🇺🇦 in according to NATO standards [link], that would be long process, at least 6 to 18 months, but each shipment significantly increases 🇺🇦 capabilities.
International Security Guarantees:
Group led by Andriy Yermak and Anders Fogh Rasmussen held 1st meeting [link]. Military assistance and guarantees during the ascension to 🇪🇺
Fun fact: 🇷🇺ns tend to avoid 🇷🇺 made cars, and choose imported as better quality, however they don’t doubt, that 🇷🇺 weapons are the best.
Second largest army in the world during 5th month of maximum effort couldn’t achieve Operational results in any of directions. That is not an army.
With official budget of 🇷🇺 army is $64 bn, unofficial $120 bn or more, decades in preparing, using all Strategic reserves, not achieving single Operational objective is catastrophic.
For non-military, imagine you had budget of $2 bn to buy apartment for family, you spent it, and are left with $35k, when the apartment costs $60k. Then you try to make up that all of that was planned. Masses still believe that.
19 rail carts derailed in Trans-Siberia rail line, responsibility took some anti-war activists, definitely not Freedom of Russia Legion [link]
During June 🇺🇸 did supply more liquid natural gas to 🇪🇺 than 🇷🇺.
Just-in: 🇷🇺 aviation did friendly-fire attack in Kherson district [probably unverified]