Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 126 of the war, kindly provided by twitter.com/savaadaak
English voice-over video by Privateer Station:
Original video in Russian:
No significant changes on battlefield.
Kharkiv: insane bombing, 6-7 Iskander missiles, artillery, MLRS daily, tactical movements (captured some street in village), small 🇷🇺 advances
Izium-Popasna: for last 2-3 days no new 🇷🇺 reserves. 🇷🇺 relocating 2-3 BTGs, depending on direction of main offensive. This causes tiredness on 🇷🇺 forces, and doesn’t allow them to prepare. Appears, that 🇷🇺 have significant issues with reserves.
Lysychansk: 🇷🇺 advancing, captured Sievierodonetsk after 🇺🇦 retreat. Now attacking on Syrotyne, Lisna Dacha, Bila Hora and main pressure on Vovchoiarivka.
Bakhmut-Lysychansk road: Near Mykolaivka 🇷🇺 are almost on road, near Bilohorivka, completely on road, however 🇺🇦 is not using it for a while already. 🇷🇺 having 15km between opposing front lines. 🇺🇦 command has intent, and it’s being implemented. It doesn’t seem, that 🇺🇦 command would allow encirclement, it is quite visible, and it seems they clearly know, what they are doing.
Bakhmut: Popasna group strongly moving in direction of Bakhmut, near Volodymyrivka, Pokrovske, and some information that M-03 road south of Bakhmut has been cut off. 🇷🇺 using significant forces, to achieve small tactical envelopment.
Zaporozhye: tactical pause, 🇷🇺 using info-channels to spread rumors of offensive, but they don’t have enough power, and won’t have for a while.
Kherson: no significant movements, 🇺🇦 artillery celebrating 7 large hits today. Yesterday 🇺🇦 hit meeting of 🇷🇺 senior officers.
🇷🇺 rocket terror:
🇷🇺 hitting Mykolaiv, Kharkiv every day non-selective, Dnipro and other cities rarer. Expecting 🇷🇺 bombings to last for 1-1.5 more weeks, before they understand that it’s expensive and not achieving objectives. Missile attacks won’t stop completely, but intensity will be reduced. 🇷🇺 has missiles for a while, but they won’t have any left after this war and no means to replenish.
Current attacks are due to frustration, and feeling hopeless, this is in a way breakthrough. In future expecting more breakthroughs – stopping of offensive, negotiation attempts, 🇺🇦 offensive, counter-offensive attempts
Expected date on 11. September, can’t be done while army doing offensive (otherwise you need new referendum for territories captured later). Expecting, that 🇷🇺 will switch to defense at mid/late August, then use remaining time for bureaucracy. This correlates with 🇷🇺 missile usage – can’t use strategic reserves for tactical gains. It’s like burning down house, to kill 3 mosquitoes.
It could turn out funny, if 🇷🇺 is trying to defend, and do bureaucracy to finalize district borders, while 🇺🇦 is attacking. Stupid to think, that 🇺🇦 won’t have accumulated offensive potential.
NATO Madrid summit declaration [link]
Tectonic and fundamental changes happening, could be compared to 1945 – Yalta and Potsdam conferences. In April, Macron was still calling Putin, and trying to persuade, now he’s trolling Putin, NATO has stopped being afraid of 🇷🇺.
All the recent meetings were preparing long ago, 🇷🇺 was well aware, and was expected to react diplomatically, however the only reaction they provided was rocket terror. Even during cold war, USSR was more reasonable, had understanding of diplomatic rules, now it’s like dealing with gopniks [cheap street criminals].
🇫🇷 to provide Exocet anti-ship missile, that has been well-proved in Falklands war.
🇫🇷 is sending more CAESAR artillery and APCs.
🇩🇪 is sending air-defense and equipment that wasn’t even discussed 2 months ago.
🇳🇴 is sending 3x M270 MLRS launchers [similar to M142 HIMARS], over 20 MLRS launchers pledged total.
🇷🇺 Kursk military airfield had smoking incident, many aircraft damaged.
On June 22, 🇷🇺 rocket-artillery warehouse 80km from Moscow did suddenly blow up.