Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 118 of the war, as usual kindly provided by twitter.com/savaadaak
In response to Snake Island, Russia is bombing Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv.
Kyiv: please don’t ignore air-raid sirens until at least 26th of June. Ukraine has means to do make ir very painful for Russia. If stakes are increasing, Ukraine is ready to respond.ย
Kharkiv: positional fuss, however shelling reaching Kharkiv – 15 died, 16 wounded. Russia shelling indiscriminately, trying to provoke Ukraine’s reaction and relocation of Ukrainian artillery from other areas. Possibly Belgorod forces could cause more headache, forcing Ukraine to bring even more reserves, Russia is aiming to wear out Ukraine. Reminder that Kharkiv is front-line city now, and possibly will remain such for long. Please evacuate vulnerable people.
Izium-Lyman: multiple localized battles. Possibly Russia relocated 2+ BTGs to Sievierodonetsk.
Sievierodonetsk: Russia captured Metolkine, moving on Bila Hora, Borivske, Syrotyne, localized battles, some risk.
Hirske-Zolote: serious problems, Russia used 3+ BTGs, captured Toshkivka, advancing on Myrna Dolyna, trying to surround Hirsk-Zolote. It’s visible that Russian command is learning, attacking wide front, creating small pockets using local advantages and reserves.
Popasna: Russia reached Bakhmut-Lysychansk road near Berestove, got pushed back. Pressuring on Klynove, trying to push Ukraine behind road.
There is Tactical success for Russia, preconditions to increase it to Operative success (if Russia closes encirclement), but so far it hasn’t happened, only risk of it.
Good Ukrainian tactic would be to assume new defense line during rotation, bring fresh reserves into defense, and move current units to rear. Current layout (long flanks) would be useful if Ukraine had large reserves, used as trap. Similar traps were done by Germany during WW2. Decision is up to Ukrainian military command, they are much more informed. President has given military command high authority.ย
Zaporozhye: no significant changes.
Kherson: Kyselivka controlled by Ukraine, about 15km to Kherson, but distance is not as significant as equipment and power. It’s possible that 15km takes half year to move.ย
Weapons:
๐ธ๐ฐ Slovakia has plan to provide 12x MiG-29, after Czechia and Poland take over air patrol duties [link]
๐ฉ๐ช PzH-2000’s have arrived.
War crimes:
US Attorney General visited Ukraine, expressed significant support for prosecuting war criminals [link]
190k children moved from Ukraine to Russia, 10s thousands forcibly, special camps to teach Russian language.
As of today 311 known children dead.
United Kingdom to create sanctions specifically for brutal attitude toward children.
ย Lithuania blocking sanctioned goods transit through road transport, in addition to rail. Russia keeps threatening.ย
Turkey announced negotiations next week, without consulting Ukraine.
Viktor Orban invited to Kyiv. EU has made collective decision, any disagreements would be serious challenge to EU. If Hungary would reject Ukraine’s candidate status, it would mean serious conflict within EU, possibly removing veto-rights, which would not be in interests of Hungary.
๐บ๐ฆ is doing attacks on concentration of military equipment and ammo in occupied territories, including Donetsk city, but ๐บ๐ฆ never attacks civilians. There have been 10 personally witnessed situations, when very valuable targets have been skipped due to risk for civilians.ย
Gas platforms have been paid by ๐บ๐ฆ, built in ๐บ๐ฆ territorial waters, owned by ๐บ๐ฆ, violently stolen by ๐ท๐บ, now ๐ท๐บ accuses ๐บ๐ฆ in violating international laws.ย
Prisoner exchange: decisions were made at highest levels, some information that Putin is involved in decisions of each prisoner.
Taira was exchanged specifically, because she was medic, and ๐ท๐บ tried to create example lawsuit. ๐บ๐ฆ not commenting who was given in exchange, but somebody significant.ย
Most interesting insider-information will be provided for month after war ends.
