Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 117 of the war, kindly provided by twitter.com/savaadaak
The following map was used to review the frontline during the broadcast: https://deepstatemap.live/#10/48.7929/38.1377
Kharkiv: Multiple city shelling per day. Calling residents to evacuate children and seniors, as it’s going to last for a while. Russians attempt to advance on Staryi Saltiv, Derhachi, Ruska Lazova. Russian group near Belgorod has reached operational readiness, target unknown, possibly Kharkiv. Still, Russia has no chance to capture Kharkiv, only danger from shelling.
Izium: Russia started moving on Barvinkove, Dolyna, Krasnopilia, Bohorodychne, Pryshyb, Staryi Karavan, Raihorodok, Zakitne. They still need to cross river in most locations
Sievierodonetsk: Expecting large battle. Battles near Syrotyne and Voronove. Russians reached road P-66 near Toshkivka, expecting problems with Zolote. Simultaneously attacking from Komyshuvakha on Hirske, trying to surround Zolote.
Popasna: Russian movements on Rai-Oleksandrovka, Mykolaivka, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Klynove, Pokrovske, trying to cut road M-03.
Russians using small forces, trying to attack in all directions simultaneously, trying to find weak spots, Ukraine is controlling situation. Possible concentration of efforts in coming days.
Zaporozhye: some activity from Ukrainian forces in direction of Melitopol-Vasylivka, progress unknown. Week ago there was serious Russian concentration in Vasylivka
Kherson: Ukraine advanced past Posad-Pokrovske, near Kyselivka, which is pretty close to Chornobaivka and Kherson. South Ukraine reached Pravdyne. Currently on pause, both sides get tired fast. Partisans killed 3 and wounded 1 FSB agents.
Zelensky visited Kherson and Lysychansk last week. Putin would never do that, he is afraid of even his own troops. Putin gets information from inaccurate reports, while Zelensky prefers to get personal feeling, to understand.
Black Sea:
Attacks on three Natural Gas platforms 71km from Odessa, that were captured by Russia in 2014, and had set up air-defense and radar. 21 out 109 personnel (gas and military) rescued.
Snake Island: a lot of hits today, lots of fire and smoke.
Russian navy now need to recover from shock, and find volunteers for supply deliveries to Snake Island, and volunteers who will sit there.
No details on missiles, just Russians again smoking at wrong places.
Girkin reports that Russia navy has left port, it is located near Crimea, preparing to fire missiles. Please don’t ignore air-raid sirens in next 4 days everywhere in Ukraine.
Lithuania: Implementing EU sanctions, blocked sanctioned goods transit via rail to Kaliningrad enclave. Russia threatens war to NATO country. [link]
Kazakhstan: cut off Russian coal, Russia cut off Kazakh oil, also Russian threats.
Russia at war 120 days, doesn’t have any military power left, yet they keep threatening 2 more countries, they have lost all touch with reality.
EU candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia (who started reforms earlier) didn’t make the list, possibly because their government looks a lot like Yanukovich’s, possibly because Georgia doesn’t do well with implementing sanctions against Russia.
Ukraine about to join 3 seas initiative, increasing regional contacts for export/import
Australia sent 4 APCs, expecting 14 more.
Longevity: 2-3 years of war are unlikely, Russian attempts could last maximum until next summer. Current Russian plan is to assemble 10 BTGs every month, but they are already using T-62 tanks, so even executing this plan is doubtful. Russia even sending groups of 3-4 tanks, not whole battalions. Russia was expecting tiredness of West. Media coverage decrease is normal after 120 days. It will increase, when Ukraine starts offensive.
EU supports Ukraine much more than 50%, preparing for long conflict. There is no perspective for Putin’s regime.
Collapse will start with some Russian units refusing orders, then more units. Some units will sabotage orders. At some moment, they would just leave, without explanation, not willing to die. Similarities to Kyiv, many will think that nothing changes. Possibly until end of this year.
