Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 114 of the war, kindly provided by twitter.com/savaadaak
Frontline overview
Sumy, Chernihiv: Russian shelling. Kharkiv: Russia reached limit of their abilities, and got stuck at North. Izium: Ukraine reached Dmytrivka (SW), close to Izium, flank of Russia. Russians attempting to move on Barvinkove (SSW), Dolyna (S), Bohorodychne (SSE), Sydorove (SE). Lyman: senseless Russian attempts on Raihorodok (SW), Zakitne (SE), looking for location to cross river.
Popasna: Russians started an attack on Bakhmut-Lysychansk road (60th day in row), Ukraine responded immediately, intense battles. Ukraine using different routes to supply Sievierodonetsk. Bakhmut: Russians attacking on Pokrovske (NEE).
Sievierodonetsk: street battles, including artillery usage. Significant Russian effort on Borivkse (SSE). Russia attempts to create small pocket at Toshkivka-Hirske-Zolote. Russia had some reinforcements, but knowing their abilities, there doesn’t seem to be risk. Avdiivka: Russia started movements on Ocheretyne (N).
Zaporozhye: tactical movements near Vasylivka and Orikhiv, no significant changes. Kherson: Ukraine moving, somewhat actively. Photos with Kherson visible from Kyselivka (W) (still 15-18km). Confirmed Ukrainian control at Posad-Pokrovske, Soldatske, Pravdyne, Oleksandrivka. Those actions can turn into serious counter-offensive very soon.
Snake island: Russian ship hit with 2 Harpoon missiles, sunk. Distance seems more than 90km. Ukrainian Navy is 2nd place in most enemy tonnage sunk since 1945, without even leaving port. 1st place is 🇦🇷 Argentina in Falklands War, due to sinking container ship.
Military luck is returning to Ukraine. Very good and accurate hits started week ago. Yesterday Ukraine destroyed army-level warehouse in Krasnyi Luch, supplying Sievierodonetsk and Popasna – Russia will have serious supply issues. Similar warehouse in Donetsk destroyed today. Very successful hits on Skadovsk, Nova Khakovka. Russia lost Su-25 in Belgorod.
Ukraine had a period of 2 weeks without ammo.
Political visits
EU won’t be forcing Ukraine to sign peace at all costs, but will keep assisting with humanitarian, economical and even military aid. At peace talks, Ukraine should be dictating rules, determining what is victory. Immediate assignment of EU candidate status to Ukraine. Physical visit of Irpin and Bucha creates different experience, than just simply knowing, that’s why politicians prefer personal visits.
UK offered training for 10k solders (2 brigades) every 120 days. It is very important to have well prepared solders, when equipment arrives. Ukraine can do 2-4 weeks training, 4 months would create serious professionals. UK sending more than 20 M109 self propelled howitzers (3 brigades), bought from Belgium.
Macron said, that won’t help with aircraft and tanks, which would be needed for offensive. France want to force Russia for peace treaty, but not military defeat. Those are only words, and many have changed already.
At some moment, Russia forces can start retreating, if they understand lack of perspective, like they did near Kyiv. Offensive is somewhat motivating, seeing advances and having dominance. Defense of conquered territory, very stupid and demotivating. Even near Sievierodonetsk and Popasna, where Russians are somewhat advancing, they are not completing objectives for over 60 day, while Ukraine is completing their objective to stall and wear out Russians.
Ukraine needs some significant moral success, like flanking Izium or capturing/surrounding Kherson, to achieve breaking point. After battle of Kursk, Germany wasn’t able to do any successful operation.
Other
Russia has lost every 7th solder sent to Ukraine (30k died from 250k). Ukraine has lost every 70th (10k died from 700k).
HIMARS delivery: several can be expected near July 1. With correct targeting, one M142 HIMARS can replace 6x BM-30 Smerch.
Crimean bridge: Current HIMARS ammunition will not reach Crimean bridge. Useless to hit it, even with longer range missiles – surface can be repaired fast, but supports need significantly stronger bombs. There are plenty more valuable Russian targets. Even hitting forces, while they are crossing bridge is better use of missiles
Putin’s speech: Mix of political and ideological views, very modest goals, which were told him by somebody else – to not do frontal attacks. Economical speech – zero value. He does not have anything to say. Explanations look like excuses.
Belarus: Lukashenka formally tells that he is ready to fight for West Ukraine, informally does everything to keep Belarus army out, symbolically shows support to Ukraine. Ukraine did verify preparedness, and is ready. If Belarusian army goes to Ukraine, it will be largest weapons supply for Ukrainian army. Only use for Belarusian army is in deep rear, to not have contact with Ukrainian army.
Ukrainian medic Yulia “Taira” got freed from captivity. Ukraine is working to free all prisoners.
