Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Atis: https://twitter.com/savaadaak.

It looks like we overestimated 🇷🇺, given just on Sunday we were saying they were ready to launch a massive attack. They suffered heavy losses around Sievierodonetsk (hundreds killed) and retreated back, 🇺🇦 also retreated, to allow artillery use. No close battles, heavy artillery exchanges, the city is empty. The expected large offensive did not start, 🇷🇺 doing careful probing attacks, relying on artillery and aviation.

Attacks on Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway failed, attack on Lysychansk failed, Izium and Lyman are quiet. 🇷🇺 conducted recon on river crossing on Siverskyi Donets river from Lysychansk to Siversk. 🇺🇦 forces are very motivated to keep defending, such motivation usually comes from experience in battle and confidence in ability to win.

Most probably 🇷🇺 military command did change, this careful style of fighting is due to new commanders. 🇷🇺 General died, while leading VDV (airborne forces) in battle, which normally wouldn’t be needed, as they are highly motivated. There have been numerous cases of 🇷🇺 solders attacking, firing, or driving over commanding officers with tanks. 🇷🇺 does not have disciplinary solution, can’t make discipline even stronger, possibly attempting paradigm change – proving that the new command really cares about soldier’s lives. With previous command, 🇷🇺 would have certainly launched an attack by now given how many forces they’ve accumulated.

Zaporozhye: 🇷🇺 dug in a battalion (30) of T62 tanks, using them as checkpoints, relocating part of forces away, possibly to Kherson area, because 🇷🇺 is not doing well there. Kherson: 🇺🇦 established a foothold near Davydiv Brid, repelled multiple 🇷🇺 attacks, now 🇺🇦 advanced even further. 🇷🇺 lost approximately 1 BTG. Also, 🇷🇺 has concentrated all the forces from surrounding area of 150-20km from Popasna. Such relocation of forces hasn’t happened before. It means, that 🇷🇺 can’t complete main objectives without significant relocation.

Even if 🇷🇺 now wins in the East (which is unlikely), their forces would need to retreat, and do serious replenishing afterwards, which would take very long time (and allow 🇺🇦 to get more weapons). This is only hypothesis at the moment, but has at least 2 proofs (transfer of forces in 2 locations). If this is true, and 🇷🇺 is unable to attack without concentrating forces, they lost war tempo even before lend-lease arrived. Conclusion: either 🇷🇺 seriously started saving lives of their troops, or waiting is for reinforcements, which also implies 1st reason. Either case, it’s a good sign for 🇺🇦.

According to sources in Moscow, Putin had a meeting with generals 2 days ago which apparently resulted in a lot of yelling indicating he was not happy with them. 🇷🇺 attempted to prove that no matter what time-frame, regardless of resistance, they will achieve their objectives. Now, the question arises – what sort of referendum can be held, if 🇺🇦 forces are just 20km away from Kherson. It’s impossible.

Lavrov’s visit in 🇹🇷 – denies stealing of grain, asks for restarting negotiations, which signals that 🇷🇺 is not doing well. Yet 🇷🇺 can’t be trusted about any deal. 🇺🇦 will decide how and to whom to sell its grain, after 🇷🇺 removes its navy. Mine clearing won’t happen before that. 🇺🇦 asks for military solution to grain transport (possibly anti-ship missile)

European Commission stands with 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪Baltics, 🇵🇱, 🇨🇦, supports 🇺🇦 in defeating 🇷🇺, removing its ability to threaten neighbours. Old Europe is split into Euro-Atlantists, for unity of all countries surrounding Atlantic Ocean. Continentalists want to balance 🇺🇸 and anglo-saxon influence. They have fallen for Putin’s fake reality, as it matches their political tasks and goals. Saying that Putin has made a mistake (rather than admitting a crime). 🇺🇦 army will not allow to play games with 🇺🇦.

Personal Sanctions – still struggling adding some influential people, but with time they will get included. Confiscated valuables should be transferred to 🇺🇦 assistance fund. People, who say that it’s a mistake (the war), rather than crime, do disrupt justice. Lockerby case lasted for 10 years. Next broadcast on Friday.