Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 111 of the war, kindly provided by https://twitter.com/savaadaak
Kharkiv: Russians attempting to move in North, getting kicked, Ukrainians getting kicked too, tactical chaos.
Izium: active movements, situation changing rapidly, at several locations Russians retreated a bit.
Lyman: Russians need to cross river, seen movements near Stariy Karavan, Kryva Luka, Dronivka. Apparently Russia will attempt wide crossing at multiple locations. Ukraine has strong artillery in region, possibly will result in several destroyed bridges, like in Bilohorivka.
Sievierodonetsk: Battles for Metolkine (SEE). Main efforts near Toshkivka (SSE), Orikhove (SSE),Komyshuvakha (S), Vrubivka (SSW), conflicting reports of success. Anxious attempts on Berestove, to cut off road Bakhmut-Lysychansk, already for 60 days.
Bakhmut: Russian attempts to move on Pokrovske (E) and Klynove (SE), attempting to reach M-03 road.
Zaporozhye: Russians got hit in rear by Ukrainian artillery.
Kherson district: Many valuable Ukrainian artillery hits, 1 ammo warehouse destroyed, 1 helicopter destroyed.
Ukraine destroyed 2 Russian cruise missiles P-800 Oniks. As they are supersonic, it is very hard to target.
Russia doing the same everywhere – achieving small gains by using own solders as cannon fodder. This is great insight into WW2, that can be obtained by watching the Russian army. Putin hasn’t understood couple of things – He is not Stalin, he doesn’t have 27 million mobilized soldiers, he doesn’t have lend-lease (in fact, Ukraine has lend-lease). However this is countered by using energy as weapons, and amount of 5th column in Europe.
Ukrainian artillery doing well everywhere, good skills and enough ammo for now. Artillery duels, leaning to Ukraine’s advantage. Still need more weapons and ammo. We can see, what Ukraine is doing with just 120 howitzers, if some 200-300 are added, Russia would be kicked hard. Podolyak’s list of weapons is idealistic, to kick Russia out in couple of months. Anything less, will take it longer. Russian 14th Spetsnaz (SOF) brigade has mass refusals
There are 2 groups of dumb-asses – Russians and Ukrainian “patriots”. They are using the same words, offering to implement national politics, using Stalin’s methods. They didn’t like mention of “small culture”. Mark Feygin is not doing live-streams as representative of the Russian opposition, but to create content, that is important for Ukraine. Language choice (Russians) is to expand the audience. Beyond informative, broadcasts also attempt to interact and influence in interests of Ukraine.
The “patriots” don’t think beyond their usual field. They are not interested in civilisation goals, necessity of administering decay of Putin’s regime, new world security models. They don’t even understand necessity of doing PsyOps on Kremlin and Russian military who are watching. Primary desire for them is to not use the Russian language.
🇩🇪 Scholz did promise weapons, and Bundestag did vote for supply, yet they didn’t arrive. USA doesn’t announce as much, yet deliver a lot (currently about 10% delivered of what was asked). Ukraine only asks reasonable and justified amounts. Russia has brought 1200 howitzers, Ukraine needs at least 500 to counter that. This is big continental war, a simple necessity, not a desire to leave NATO undefended. Total defensible border is 2600km, active battles in 1300km.
Some US officials have expressed, that change of Putin’s regime is not objective, but rather ability for Ukraine to have strong advantage in negotiations. This is less than announced 2 months ago, but still good for Ukraine.
Possible reasons for changes are: internal resistance, making it hard to increase sanctions, it’s hard to get rid of the Russian gas. Economic weapons, before physical weapons. Inability to deliver all requested weapons in reasonable time. Wish to avoid military escalation. All of this is a mistake, the only way to stop Putin, is to defeat him.
West trying to mount economic war on Russia, who is doing physical war. However, Iran has been under sanctions for 40 years, and still has own military production, even participating in regional wars in Yemen, Iraq and Syria, causing headaches for coalition of Israel, US and others. Ukraine has proven, it can fight physical war, it needs weapons and ammo.
The week, when Ukrainian artillery finally got enough ammo was total terror on Russia – hitting everything and everywhere (not allowed to disclose a lot), winning counter-artillery battles while being outnumbered 1:5 (problems start, when being outnumbered 1:10). One of possible reasons for slowdown of weapons, is that previous Ramstein meeting did place bets on finding old USSR weapons for Ukraine, however there are not a lot of old ammo and missiles, and those few missiles found, Russians did attempt to buy first.
During Poroshenko presidency, several large Ukrainian warehouses were blown up by Russian saboteurs, destroying a lot of Ukrainian missile and artillery stock. Investigation still hasn’t been finished, and nobody has been charged.
This seems to be mentality of Ukrainians, to not punish anyone, all intermediate government officials are not guilty of anything (or well connected, relatives, etc). This has to change. There is a lot of corruption, but that is not a reason to let country get destroyed. Besides, all weapons are getting used, nobody is that stupid to leave their country undefended
