Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, day 110 of the war, kindly provided by https://twitter.com/savaadaak
Battlefield update
Sumy, Cherninhiv – Shelling, but no risk of a direct attack. 2 Russians BTGs that only endanger themselves, and location around within 500m.
Kharkiv: Russians brought reserves, and started advances in North and East. Regular artillery started reaching Kharkiv, attacks already 5-6 days. Captured village 15km from Stariy Saltiv, and some other, that were not well defended. This attack is still done in order to keep Ukraine from relocating forces to Izium and lower.
Izium: Russia restarted attempts to create large pocket, put significant effort in direction to Sloviansk/Barvinkove/Sviatohirsk. Russian forces consist of 20 BTG, many with experience near Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, however they have similar probability to capture Sloviansk, as Sievierodonetsk, that can’t be captured for 60 days already.
Lyman: Russians trying to cross river Siversky Donets, movements in direction to Siversk, Zakitne, Kryva Luka. All possible crossing points known, Ukrainian M777’s are ready.
Sievierodonetsk – announced Russian control of 70%, however those control numbers last for couple of hours, as there are active manoeuvre battles. Russians retracted main forces, only keeping mobilised units, and using artillery. Ukraine did repel attacks on Metolkine (E) and Borivske (SE), Toshkivka (SE) today, situation being controlled. Russians trying to create small pocket near Komyshuvakha-Hirske-Toshkivka. Near Berestove, Russians again trying to cut off road Bakhmut-Lysychansk
Bakhmut – shelling.
All those changes look scary on map, but will be long, boring and unsuccessful. Most units are consisting of reserves and conscripts, less than 50% of total capacity. Their battle-skills are lower than baseboard, and can be seen near Sievierodonetsk. If Ukraine had enough artillery, this would be solved in a week.
Huliaipole – Russians were preparing for attack, but Ukraine did counter-attack.
Vasylivka – unconfirmed information, that Russian forces were split, Kadyrovites sent to Sievierodonetsk area, Buryats to Kherson (as Kadyrovites did couple of artillery attacks on Buryats).
Kherson: tactical movements, counter-attack actions. Ukraine pushed back from 15km to 18km from Kherson city. No significant changes.
Partisans: Creative posters in Kherson, couple of Russian military lost in Zaporozhye district, ammo depot in Velykyi Burluk blown up.
Ukrainian counter-artillery started working better – more ammo, improved organization and recon.
Weapon supplies & European Candidacy for Ukraine
Future historians will be bored counting days, when #Feygin and #Arestovych ask for weapons, from April to at least August. Podolyak published [link] required weapons, to decisively win, less will make it harder for Ukraine. Not unrealistic, if manufactured and delivered in 6 months. 1/5 of required would change situation significantly, if sent now. Waiting for results of Ramstein meeting on Wednesday.
Arestovych would rather take weapons, but why not.
Russia would probably announce, that nothing will change, wave their rights to free people of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Luhansk. Russian agents in Europe are currently agitating for peace deal, would say that Europe has right to accept, but they are doing mistake. Full membership might take decades, or at least years.
Ukraine doesn’t have enough weapons yet, to recapture Kherson. After Bucha massacres, Russians were scared of reaction, almost become ready for dialogue. Now they see, that there was no significant reaction, few sanctions, and not much weapons deliveries. Annexing Kherson is not out of the question. In Kherson 23 out of 250k current inhabitants went to receive Russian passports, which shows perspective of referendum. However, Russia has achieved dialogue with the West, and that means compromises
The West thinks, that speed up of 🇪🇺-integration of Ukarine, sanctions and peace would keep off Putin’s aggression. Only direct defeat, will stop Putin, if he physically is unable to attack. If Putin is still in dialogue after all possible crimes, and announcing, that he is doing war against the West, he thinks West is weak, and he should keep doing the same.
All calming politics of West only increases his appetite. Only simple physical defeat will stop him. For that Ukraine needs weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons, weapons and weapons [some skipped]. After received SMS – ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo, ammo [some skipped].
Russia has plans to assemble 40 BTGs in next 4 months, currently 103 incomplete BTGs in Ukraine. In reality Russia would assemble incomplete 5 BTGs/month, creating localized advantages in 1-2 areas.
Imagine, Arestovych asking Mark Feygin for $200 urgently needed. Mark responds – you know, we did 3 conferences, and have sent you $3 already, preparing to send $1.5 soon. Arestovych keeps telling – it’s really bad, people dying. Mark would respond – Oh, i didn’t know. Here, have $0.22 more. This is really stupid and cheap comedy, if not the huge tragedy.
Even Afghanistan was receiving $300m/day during 20 years. Ukraine would be happy with just 1/20 of that in weapons.
NFT auction: Sasha (9yo girl) has received financial assistance (2000 eur), looking for robotic prosthetic
Those broadcasts are to discuss professionals (people who have impact, and chance to change things). Military experts will not be commented.
